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投稿时间：2007-12-27 修订日期：2008-02-27
投稿时间：2007-12-27 修订日期：2008-02-27
中文摘要: 以案例分析为主要形式，阐述了随机决策方法结合气象服务在企业决策经营中的应用
。案例1的分析结果表明，当未来高影响天气出现的概率未知时，其为不确定型气象服务决
策问题，可根据服务对象对待风险的偏好，相应采取乐观法、保守法或最小后悔值法来选择
合适的服务方案。案例2表明，当未来高影响天气出现的概率已知时，其为确定型气象服务
决策问题，可采用决策树模型的最大期望估算进行辅助决策。在确定型决策问题的灵敏度分
析中，可将其转化为求临界概率的数学问题，并用图示法进行求解。
Abstract:The applications of stochastic decision making to meteorological service are in
troduced primarily in two cases.The first case study shows that the meaning of s
tochastic decision making is uncertain when the probability of high impact weat
her event is uncertain. In this case, the optimistic, pessimistic, or minimum re
pentant value (MRV) decision making can be chosen respectively according to the
risk preferences of service. The second case shows that it is a certain meaning
of stochastic decision making when the probability of high impact weather even
t is known. In this case, the best scheme could be setup up by the maximal expec
tation value (ME) to provide meteorological service. Sensitivity analysis of sto
chastic decision making could be transformed as a mathematic question about calculating the critical probability and figured out d
irectly by using graphical method.
keywords: meteorological service stochastic decision making risk preferences the maxima
l expectation
文章编号： 中图分类号： 文献标志码：
基金项目:中国气象局新技术推广项目“气象服务效益评估技术开发与应用”（CMATG2007M14和北京市
科技计划项目“北京奥运会国际天气预报示范计划支持技术研究”（Z0006279040191）共同
资助。
引用文本：
熊亚军,扈海波,王迎春,郭虎,2008.随机决策方法在气象服务中的应用[J].气象,34(5):14-19.
Xiong Yajun,Hu Haibo,Wang Yingchun,Guo Hu,2008.The Applications of Stochastic Decision making to Meteorological Service[J].Meteor Mon,34(5):14-19.
熊亚军,扈海波,王迎春,郭虎,2008.随机决策方法在气象服务中的应用[J].气象,34(5):14-19.
Xiong Yajun,Hu Haibo,Wang Yingchun,Guo Hu,2008.The Applications of Stochastic Decision making to Meteorological Service[J].Meteor Mon,34(5):14-19.