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气象:2008,34(5):9-13
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气象风险源的社会关注度风险等级分析方法
(1.陕西省气象局 西安 710015;2.兰州大学生命科学学院;3.兰州大学大气科学学院;4.陕西省榆林市气象局)
Risk Degree Methods on Meteorological Risk Resources of Xi'an General Public
(1.Shaanxi Provincial Meteorological Bureau, Xi'an 710015;2.School of Life Science, Lanzhou niversity;3.School of Atmospheric Sciences, Lanzhou University;4.Yulin Meteorological Office,Shaanxi Province)
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投稿时间:2008-01-30    修订日期:2008-04-08
中文摘要: 为了定量分析社会公众对气象风险关注等级程度以及对应等级的关注人数,综合应用模糊数 学和多项式拟合方法,以西安市2004年1月至2007年10月,与当地公众生活关系密切的5类高 影响天气事件,即:高温、雷暴、大到暴雨、中雨和小雨,作为潜在气象风险源,综合应用 12121气象信息服务电话拨打次数和气象信息,计算出气象风险超越概率,通过对其4次多项 式的拟合和求解,定量计算了一般、中、高三等级的气象风险关注度以及对应等级的关注人 数。这有利于政府决策者及社会公众在响应气象风险时有较为定量的判断。
Abstract:By taking the information of high impact weather events of Xi'an city from 2004 January to 2007 October as background, the Fuzzy Mathematics and Polyn omial Fit methods are applied to quantitatively analyze meteorological attention degrees on potential meteorological risks resources and responding people numbe rs of general public. Five potential meteorological risk resources closely relat ed to local general public, i.e. heat wave,thunderstorm,heavy shower,moderate shower and scattered precipitation, and dialing numbers of weather service phon e (named 12121) and other weather information as well are chosen to calculate th e exceeding probabilities of meteorological risk resources. Then, the three att ention degrees, i.e. ordinary, moderate and high degree, and people numbers are c alculated through 4th degree polynomial fit. It's useful for quantitative judgme nt of policy decision maker and general public response to these meteorological risks.
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基金项目:2008年中国气象局新技术推广项目“陕西省气象服务效益分析与评估 技术应用”(编号:CMATG2008M53);2008年陕西省气象局重点科研项目。
引用文本:
罗慧,李良序,张彦宇,刘璐,李社宏,李彩莲,2008.气象风险源的社会关注度风险等级分析方法[J].气象,34(5):9-13.
Luo Hui,Li Liangxu,Zhang Yanyu,Liu Lu,Li Shehong,Li Cailian,2008.Risk Degree Methods on Meteorological Risk Resources of Xi'an General Public [J].Meteor Mon,34(5):9-13.