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气象:2008,34(5):20-25
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基于模糊综合评价法的登陆台风灾害影响评估模型
(国家气象中心,北京 100081)
A Fuzzy Synthetic Evaluation Model for Typhoon Disaster
(National Meteorological Center, Beijing 100081)
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投稿时间:2007-12-20    修订日期:2008-03-05
中文摘要: 对登陆我国的台风灾害影响进行评估试验,遴选10个因子作为灾害的影响因子,利用加 权平均规划法确定影响因子的权重,应用模糊综合评价法得出台风影响的评价系数及灾情分 级。对2000—2006年登陆台风的影响评估进行试验,模型的评估等级与实际的灾情级别均很 接近,灾情等级为特别重大、重大、较重、一般四级的Ts评分分别达到89%、87%、73%、 78%,全部个例的拟合率达到90%。表明该模型能较好地评估我国登陆台风造成的灾情。
Abstract:The disaster impact is tentatively evaluated for typhoons making landfall in Chi na. Ten factors are chosen as disaster impact factors, and weighted values of th ese impact factors are calculated by using weighted average programming method. T hen, the evaluation coefficient of typhoon impact and the corresponding disaster grade can be obtained by applying the fuzzy synthetic method. Evaluation tests have been carried out for landed typhoons during the years from 2000 to 2006. Th e results show that the model evaluation grade keeps in close agreement with the actual disaste r grade. The percentage of accuracy can reach 89%, 87%, 73%, and 78% , respectiv ely, for four disaster grades as especial great, great, heavy, and general, and about 90% for all samples. The results indicate that this model can evaluate ty phoon disaster well for typhoons making landfall in China. 
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基金项目:中国气象局2007年基建项目“灾害监测预警评估中心监测预警系统建设”
引用文本:
马清云,李佳英,王秀荣,王维国,高兰英,2008.基于模糊综合评价法的登陆台风灾害影响评估模型[J].气象,34(5):20-25.
Ma Qingyun,Li Jiaying,Wang Xiurong,Wang Weiguo,Gao Lanying,2008.A Fuzzy Synthetic Evaluation Model for Typhoon Disaster[J].Meteor Mon,34(5):20-25.