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投稿时间：2017-08-07 修订日期：2018-04-13
投稿时间：2017-08-07 修订日期：2018-04-13
中文摘要: 参考Mecikalski et al(2010a；2010b)提出的基于GOES系列卫星的对流初生预报方法，针对上海市夏季对流天气特征建立了基于高时空分辨率的静止气象卫星数据的上海市对流初生判识及预报方法。利用该方法对上海市的一次对流初生个例进行了分析，并对2016年7—8月的12次对流初生事件进行了预报试验，结果表明:方法提取的各个指标能够很好地体现对流初生过程中云团的发展变化特征并能剔除掉成熟对流云团边缘像元的干扰；在12次对流初生事件中，成功地预报了其中的11次，预报时间较对流初生时间平均提前了约30 min，但是对于局地弱对流过程该方法仍有一定的缺陷。
中文关键词: 葵花-8，对流初生，MB06算法，上海
Abstract:Referring to the method presented by Mecikalski et al (2010a; 2010b), which was based on GOES satellite data to forecast convective initiation (CI), this paper proposes a method for forecasting summer CI by using Himawari 8 satellite data in Shanghai. By this method, a specific convective weather event, which occurred in Shanghai on 28 July 2016, is analyzed. Moreover, an experiment for forecasting 12 CI events in Shanghai during July-August of 2016 is implemented to validate the proposed method. The results show that the development of convective cloud cluster can be well reflected by the indicators in the method, and the interference caused by the edges of mature convective clouds can be eliminated. Of the 12 CI events, 11 are forecasted and the average lead time can be about 30 min. However, CI forecasting may be missed by this method if convection is weak.
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基金项目:上海市自然科学基金(18ZR1434100)、华东区域气象科技协同创新基金合作项目(QYHZ201611)和上海市气象局团队培养项目(TD201803)共同资助
引用文本：
郭巍,崔林丽,顾问,王超,麻炳欣,2018.基于葵花8卫星的上海市夏季对流初生预报研究[J].气象,44(9):1229-1236.
GUO Wei,CUI Linli,GU Wen,WANG Chao,MA Bingxin,2018.Summer Convective Initiation Forecasting in Shanghai Based on Himawari-8 Satellite[J].Meteor Mon,44(9):1229-1236.
郭巍,崔林丽,顾问,王超,麻炳欣,2018.基于葵花8卫星的上海市夏季对流初生预报研究[J].气象,44(9):1229-1236.
GUO Wei,CUI Linli,GU Wen,WANG Chao,MA Bingxin,2018.Summer Convective Initiation Forecasting in Shanghai Based on Himawari-8 Satellite[J].Meteor Mon,44(9):1229-1236.
