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气象:2008,34(11):40-46
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低温雨雪冰冻极端气候事件的多指标综合评估技术
(1.武汉区域气候中心,430074;2.中国气象局武汉暴雨研究所)
A Multi index Synthetic Assessment Method for Extreme Climate Events of Sleeting and Freezing with Low Temperature
(1.Wuhan Regional Climate Center 430074;2.Wuhan Institute of Heavy Rain, CMA)
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投稿时间:2008-04-20    修订日期:2008-09-25
中文摘要: 评估极端气候事件,往往用某一项极端气候要素进行分析评估,如暴雨量、极端最高(最低 )气温等。2008年初出现的持续低温雨雪冰冻过程,具有雨雪量大、持续雨雪时间长、积雪 深、积雪时间长、低温持续时间长、但极端最低气温不低的特点,用其中任一因子评估定位 该过程,都不能全面反映该过程的综合影响特征。提出低温雨雪过程综合指数的概念,用最 长连续雨雪日数及期间雨雪总量作为评估雨雪部分的两项指标,日平均气温≤0.5℃的连续 日数、过程平均气温和过程极端最低气温三个要素作为评估低温部分的三项指标,将五个指 标分别无量纲化后,采用等权重技术方案建立综合指数计算模型。计算湖北10个代表站建站 以来逐年最长低温雨雪冰冻过程综合指数,分析2008年低温雨雪冰冻过程综合指数历史排位 、历史重现期,从而对该过程进行评估定位,结果比较客观,方法简单可行,便于推广。
Abstract:Extreme climate elements such as torrential rain, extreme high temperature, extr emely low temperature and so on are always used to analyze and evaluate an extre me climate event. There was a continuous sleeting and freezing process with low temperature in the beginning of 2008. The process had the characteristics of l arge and sustained precipitation and snowfall, deep and long time snow accumula tion, long time in daily low temperature with not so-low extreme low temperatur e. Therefore, it wasn't objective and accurate to choose any single one of these elements to analyze and evaluate this process. As a result, a comprehensive ind ex of sleet process was suggested,which takes largest number of days of rain and snow, total precip itation and snowfall as two indices to evaluate rain and snow, and takes largest number of days of continuous low temperature, average temperature and lowest t emperature as three indices to estimate low temperature. Meanwhile, in order to build a comprehensive index calculation model, these five indices were changed i nto dimensionless ones, and then summed with equal weight. The model was used to calculate the comprehensive index of the longest continuous sleeting and freezi ng process with low temperature of ten meteorological stations in Hubei provinc e. By comparing with the historical rank and recurrence period of the comprehens ive index, the process in 2008 was evaluated. The result showed that the model a nd method was objective, easy to be used and extended.
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万素琴,周月华,李兰,史瑞琴,郭广芬,陈波,2008.低温雨雪冰冻极端气候事件的多指标综合评估技术[J].气象,34(11):40-46.
Wan Suqin,Zhou Yuehua,Li Lan,Shi Ruiqin,Guo Guangfen,Chen Bo,2008.A Multi index Synthetic Assessment Method for Extreme Climate Events of Sleeting and Freezing with Low Temperature [J].Meteor Mon,34(11):40-46.