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气象:2008,34(11):31-39
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区域气候模式对中国夏季平均气温和降水的评估分析
(国家气候中心, 北京 100081)
Assessment Analysis of Summer Temperature and Rainfall over China from Regional Climate Model
(National Climate Center,Beijing 100081)
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投稿时间:2008-05-05    修订日期:2008-09-23
中文摘要: 使用国家气候中心全球海气耦合模式嵌套区域气候模式(RegCM NCC)对1983—2002年中国 夏季平均气温和降水进行了数值回报试验,并对2003—2007年夏季进行实时预报。从模式20 年回报的平均状况来看,模式基本上能够反映出中国夏季气候的平均状况。使用国家气候中 心气候预测室的业务预报评分(P)和距平相关系数(ACC)等五个评估参数对模式的回报和 预报进行了评估分析,结果表明:该模式对我国夏季平均气温和降水具有一定的跨季度预报 能力,部分地区有较好的预报效果。区域气候模式20年夏季平均气温的回报与实况在分布形 态上较为相似,回报夏季降水量的分布形态与实况有一定的差异。近25年区域气候模式夏季 平均气温预报P评分为67.9分,降水为67.6分。
中文关键词: 区域气候模式  回报  预报  评估分析
Abstract:20-year hindcast experiments (1983-2002) and 5 year forecasts of summer averag e temperature and rainfall over China are presented by using regional climate mo del (RegCM_NCC) that is a nested global atmosphere ocean coupled model (CGCM _NCC). The RegCM_NCC can reproduce the averaged pattern of average temperatu re and precipitation during the 20 year hindcast summer. From the whole analysi s of the forecast score (P) and anomaly correlation coefficient (ACC), the RegCM _NCC has some capabilities in predicting the major seasonal average temperatur e and rain belt, especially in some areas. The pattern of hindcasted 20 year av erage temperature is very close to that of observed temperature, while there is some extent of difference between the patterns of hindcasted and observed precipitation. The forecast scores (P) of the hindcasted and forecasted 25 year averaged summer temperature and precip itation are 67.9 and 67.6, respectively.
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孙林海,刘一鸣,2008.区域气候模式对中国夏季平均气温和降水的评估分析[J].气象,34(11):31-39.
Sun linhai,Liu Yiming,2008.Assessment Analysis of Summer Temperature and Rainfall over China from Regional Climate Model[J].Meteor Mon,34(11):31-39.