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气象:2008,34(4):101-106
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2008年1月我国大范围低温雨雪冰冻灾害分析
(国家气候中心,北京 100081)
Analysis of the Severe Cold Surge, Ice snow and Frozen Disasters in South China During January 2008: Ⅱ. Possible Climatic Causes
(National Climate Center, Beijing 100081)
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投稿时间:2008-02-06    修订日期:2008-02-27
中文摘要: 2008年1月10日至2月初,我国发生了大范围低温雨雪冰冻灾害,其主要特征为灾害范围广 、灾害强度大、连续低温时间长、雨雪持续时间长、冰冻日数多和灾害损失严重。为今后更 好地开展此类事件的短期气候预测业务,作者从气候角度分析了这次灾害的可能成因。分析 表明,2007年8月发生至今的拉尼娜事件发展非常迅速,其所造成的大气环流异常是导致我 国大范围持续低温雨雪冰冻灾害的重要原因。在1月,乌拉尔山地区位势高度场异常偏高、 中亚至蒙古国西部直到俄罗斯远东地区位势高度场偏低的环流异常持续时间很长,非常有利 于冷空气不断分裂南下;西太平洋副热带高压异常偏北,有利于大量暖湿空气向我国输送, 并决定了低温暴雪冻雨灾害发生的区域;青藏高原南缘的南支槽异常稳定活跃,有利于来自 印度洋和孟加拉湾的暖湿气流沿云贵高原不断向我国输送,为我国长江中下游及其南部地区 的强降雪天气提供了更加充足的水汽来源。分析还表明,1月中旬以来,湖南、贵州等地逆 温层不断加强并长时间维持是上述地区大范围冻雨持续出现的主要原因。
Abstract:Extreme low temperature, heavy snowstorm and frost disasters occurred in China i n January of 2008. The disasters are unprecedented owing to their national wide influences, their infrequent intensity, and the long lasting periods of the low temperature, snowstorm and frost days. They led to huge losses in the country. In the second part of this paper, the possible climatic causes are analyzed. Res ults show that the La Nina event began in August 2007 and developed very quickly . It led to the anomalous general circulations in the Northern Hemisphere, which was thought to be the most important causes of unprecedented disasters. In Janu ary, the geo potential height over the Ural was abnormally high while the count erpart over the Middle Asia, the Mongolia and the Far East regions of the Russia was low. This pattern is propitious to the cold air activity from the high lati tudes. In that month, the western Pacific subtropical high (WPSTH) located more northward, which favors the transportation of the warm and wet moisture to China along its west and north sides. The position of the WPSTH determined the disast er regions. In addition, the Indian and Burma trough (IBT) in the south side of the Qinghai Xizang Plateau is quite active, which favors the moisture transport ation in another way to China, i.e., along the Yunnan Guizhou Plateau from the Indian Ocean and the Bay of Bengal. Results also indicate that the inversion lay er in that month was the strongest in all Januaries since 1951 and its persisten ce was the main causes of the frozen rain in Hu'nan and Guizhou provinces.
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高辉,陈丽娟,贾小龙,柯宗建,韩荣青,张培群,王启一,孙丞虎,朱艳峰,李威,孙林海,任福民,王凌,高歌,2008.2008年1月我国大范围低温雨雪冰冻灾害分析[J].气象,34(4):101-106.
Gao Hui,Chen Lijuan,Jia Xiaolong,Ke Zongjian,Han Rongqing,Zhang Peiqun,Wang Qiyi,Sun Chenhu,Zhu Yanfeng,Li Wei,Sun Linhai,Ren Fumin,Wang Ling,Gao Ge,2008.Analysis of the Severe Cold Surge, Ice snow and Frozen Disasters in South China During January 2008: Ⅱ. Possible Climatic Causes[J].Meteor Mon,34(4):101-106.