Abstract:This paper assesses the accuracy of operational position and intensity estimation as well as the accuracy of track and intensity forecasts for the typhoons over the Northwest Pacific and the South China Sea in 2025. It has been found that, in 2025, the mean error of typhoon position estimation and the mean absolute error (MAE) of typhoon intensity estimation made by the National Meteorological Centre (NMC) were 13.5 km and 1.1 m·s-1, respectively. The accuracies of position and intensity estimations by the NMC were superior to those of other official typhoon forecasting agencies, including the Japan Meteorological Agency and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center. The mean errors of 24 h and 48 h typhoon track forecasts by the NMC were 56.6 km and 95.8 km, respectively, and the MAEs of 24 h and 48 h typhoon intensity forecasts were 3.6 m·s-1 and 4.9 m·s-1, respectively. Thus, the performance of NMC’s typhoon track and intensity forecasts with lead times of 24 h and 48 h reached the highest level on record. For AI-based weather prediction (AIWP) models, however, the 95th percentile track forecast errors were generally larger than those of numerical weather prediction (NWP) models at short lead times, but smaller than those of NWP models at long lead times. Correcting the typhoon intensity forecasts of AIWP models with an adaptation model can reduce the underestimation of AIWP models for typhoon intensity and improve the accuracy of typhoon intensity forecasts.