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气象:2026,52(10):1246-1256
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中国旅游气象灾害时空演化规律研究——以“五一”“十一”假期为例
赵珊珊,高歌,李莹
(国家气候中心,北京 100081)
Spatio-Temporal Characteristics of Tourism-Related Meteorological Disasters in China: A Case Study During the May Day and National Day Holidays
ZHAO Shanshan, GAO Ge, LI Ying
(National Climate Centre, Beijing 100081)
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投稿时间:2026-04-17    修订日期:2026-08-14
中文摘要: “五一”“十一”假期是中国旅游黄金周,全国大部分地区气候适宜旅游度假,但旅游气象灾害的突发性、破坏性叠加黄金周旅游的集中性对旅游业的影响不容忽视。文章利用1961年以来国家级气象观测站逐日观测资料及登陆中国热带气旋信息,揭示了两个假期中国旅游气象灾害的时空格局,进一步分析了长期变化趋势。结果表明,“十一”假期全国平均旅游气象灾害日数总体少于“五一”假期,除雾、寒潮和热带气旋以外,“十一”假期的各种旅游气象灾害影响均小于“五一”假期。两个假期后期旅游气象灾害影响较前期减轻,更有利于旅游出行。中国各地区的主要旅游气象灾害差异明显,北方地区主要受大风、沙尘和寒潮影响;西南地区受强对流和雾影响较大;华南地区以暴雨和高温为主。两个假期全国平均旅游气象灾害日数总体呈显著减少趋势,其中大风和沙尘日数减少趋势尤为明显,但高温日数呈显著增加趋势。两个假期旅游气象灾害在西藏东北部、青海南部、四川西北部、云南南部等地发生概率较高,而在东北地区、华北地区、黄淮地区、西北地区东南部以及新疆北部等地发生概率较低。1961—2024年“十一”假期有18个热带气旋登陆中国,其中登陆广东次数最多。气候变暖背景下,需要关注高温天气以及登陆热带气旋对旅游业的不利影响。
Abstract:The May Day and National Day holidays are China’s golden tourism festivals with favorable climate conditions in most regions. However, the sudden and destructive feature of tourism-related meteorological disasters, combined with the concentrated travel of people during these periods, may have a serious impact on the tourism industry. In this study, daily observation data from national meteorological stations and information of landfall tropical cyclones in China since 1961 are used to reveal the spatio-temporal patterns of tourism-related meteorological disasters during the May Day and National Day holidays. Moreover, the disasters’ long-term variation trends are analyzed. The results indicate that the number of me-teorological disaster days during the National Day holiday is generally less than that during the May Day holiday. Except for fog, cold wave events and tropical cyclones, all types of tourism-related meteorological disasters exert weaker impacts in the National Day holiday than in the May Day holiday. The number of meteorological disaster days decreases in the later stages of both the May Day and National Day holidays, which is favorable for tourism. There are obvious spatial differences in tourism-related meteorological disasters across China. Northern China is primarily impacted by strong wind, sand-dust and cold wave events. Southwest China is greatly affected by severe convection and fog. Tourism-related meteorological disasters in South China are mainly dominated by torrential rains and high temperature. The number of national-average meteorological disaster days during the two holidays shows a significant decreasing trend, and the downward trends in strong winds and sand-dust days are especially notable. However, the number of high temperature days shows a significant increasing trend. Overall, the occurrence probability of tourism-related meteorological disasters is higher in northeastern Xizang, southern Qinghai, northwestern Sichuan and southern Yunnan than in Northeast China, North China, Huang-Huai Region, the southeastern part of Northwest China, and northern Xinjiang. From 1961 to 2024, there were a total of 18 tropical cyclones having made landfall in China during the National Day holiday with the highest landfall frequency in Guangdong Province. Under the background of global climate warming, more attention should be paid to the impact of high temperature and landfall tropical cyclones during the May Day and National Day holidays.
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基金项目:京津冀环境综合治理国家科技重大专项(2025ZD1208305)和国家自然科学基金项目(41875120)共同资助
引用文本:
赵珊珊,高歌,李莹,2026.中国旅游气象灾害时空演化规律研究——以“五一”“十一”假期为例[J].气象,52(10):1246-1256.
ZHAO Shanshan,GAO Ge,LI Ying,2026.Spatio-Temporal Characteristics of Tourism-Related Meteorological Disasters in China: A Case Study During the May Day and National Day Holidays[J].Meteor Mon,52(10):1246-1256.