本文已被：浏览 21次 下载 22次
投稿时间：2025-07-21 修订日期：2026-06-08
投稿时间：2025-07-21 修订日期：2026-06-08
中文摘要: 基于3 km和10 km水平分辨率的CMA区域集合预报模式（以下分别简称为CMA-REPS 3 km、CMA-REPS 10 km），对浙江暖季近地面温度、风速和降水预报性能进行统计检验与分析。结果表明：两种区域集合预报模式均能有效把握近地面要素的日变化特征，但温度预报存在冷暖偏差，风速预报普遍偏高，普遍高估午后至清晨的降水。相较于CMA-REPS 10 km，CMA-REPS 3 km可有效降低近地面温度和风速的预报误差，连续等级概率评分最高下降了23.1%，降水相对作用特征面积提升幅度最高达19%；CMA-REPS 3 km的强降水邻域空间检验分数技巧评分更高并且对近地面要素日变化特征预报更准确，但在预报中前期集合离散度更小。在复杂地形下，CMA-REPS 3 km在丘陵和山地对温度和风速的概率预报误差以及风速离散度-技巧关系改进明显，在平原和盆地地区对温度离散度-技巧关系改进明显，在地形陡峭区域对强降水有更好的集合离散度并对雨带的发展预报更好。故CMA-REPS 3 km 在复杂地形下具有较强的近地面要素预报能力。研究结果为客观评价不同地形下两种区域集合预报模式及其后续改进方法提供依据。
中文关键词: 复杂地形，区域集合预报，检验评估，暖季预报
Abstract:In this study, we conduct a statistical verification and analysis on the performance of near-surface temperature, wind speed and precipitation forecasts during the warm season in Zhejiang Province using CMA regional ensemble prediction systems at 3 km and 10 km horizontal resolutions (hereinafter referred to as CMA-REPS 3 km and CMA-REPS 10 km). The results show that both CMA-REPS 3 km and CMA-REPS 10 km can effectively capture the diurnal variations of near-surface meteorological elements, but their forecasts exhibit a negative bias in temperature, a general overestimation of wind speed, and a general overestimation of precipitation from afternoon to early morning. Compared to CMA-REPS 10 km, CMA-REPS 3 km can effectively reduce forecast errors of temperature and wind speed, with a maximum decrease of 23.1% in continuous ranked probability score and an improvement in the area of relative operation characteristic of precipitation forecast by up to 19%. Meanwhile, CMA-REPS 3 km demonstrates more superior fraction skill score for heavy precipitation neighborhood space and provides more accurate forecasts in diurnal variations of near-surface elements. However, the early ensemble spread is smaller in the forecast. In complex terrains, CMA-REPS 3 km shows significant improvements in the probability forecast errors of temperature and wind speed and also in the spread-skill relationships for wind speed in hilly and mountainous and for temperature in plain and basin areas. Not only that, CMA-REPS 3 km has better capability for the ensemble spread of heavy precipitation and the development of rain bands in steep terrain areas. As such, CMA-REPS 3 km has superior forecasting capability for the near-surface elements in complex terrains, particularly for 2 m temperature, 10 m wind speed and precipitation. These findings could serve as a scientific basis for objectively evaluating the two CMA regional ensemble prediction systems under different topographic conditions and their subsequent improvements in ensemble forecasting methods.
文章编号： 中图分类号： 文献标志码：
基金项目:浙江省自然科学基金项目（LZJMZ25D050004）和国家自然科学基金项目（42475167）共同资助
| 作者 | 单位 |
| 姚梦颖 | 浙江省气象科学研究所,杭州 310053 |
| 陈锋 | 浙江省气象科学研究所,杭州 310053 |
| 刘雪晴 | 浙江省气象科学研究所,杭州 310053 |
| 李红祺 | 中国气象局地球系统数值预报中心,北京 100081 |
| 王婧卓 | 中国气象局地球系统数值预报中心,北京 100081 |
| 王秋萍 | 浙江省气象科学研究所,杭州 310053 |
引用文本：
姚梦颖,陈锋,刘雪晴,李红祺,王婧卓,王秋萍,2026.浙江复杂地形下CMA区域集合暖季预报技巧对比与分析[J].气象,52(8):942-958.
YAO Mengying,CHEN Feng,LIU Xueqing,LI Hongqi,WANG Jingzhuo,WANG Qiuping,2026.Comparative Analysis of Forecast Skills of CMA Regional Ensemble Prediction Systems in Warm Season for the Complex Terrain Areas of Zhejiang Province[J].Meteor Mon,52(8):942-958.
姚梦颖,陈锋,刘雪晴,李红祺,王婧卓,王秋萍,2026.浙江复杂地形下CMA区域集合暖季预报技巧对比与分析[J].气象,52(8):942-958.
YAO Mengying,CHEN Feng,LIU Xueqing,LI Hongqi,WANG Jingzhuo,WANG Qiuping,2026.Comparative Analysis of Forecast Skills of CMA Regional Ensemble Prediction Systems in Warm Season for the Complex Terrain Areas of Zhejiang Province[J].Meteor Mon,52(8):942-958.
