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气象:2026,52(4):401-414
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冷空气对江苏地区热带气旋引发强降水的影响研究
沈澄,姜有山,戴竹君,李菁,缪颖绮
(南京市气象局,南京 210019; 南京市高淳区气象局,南京 211300)
Influence of Cold Air on the Heavy Rainfall Induced by Tropical Cyclones Passing Through Jiangsu Province
SHEN Cheng,JIANG Youshan,DAI Zhujun,LI Jing,MIAO Yingqi
(Nanjing Meteorological Bureau, Nanjing 210019; Nanjing Gaochun Meteorological Station of Jiangsu Province, Nanjing 211300)
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投稿时间:2025-01-22    修订日期:2026-02-10
中文摘要: 采用动态合成分析方法,对比分析了有冷空气影响和无冷空气影响天气背景下,进入江苏地区的热带气旋引发强降水过程的原因,建立了江苏地区热带气旋本体强降水天气学模型。结果表明,无论是否存在冷空气影响,进入江苏地区的热带气旋均会引发强降水过程,主要原因在于热带气旋非对称结构的演变、低空急流对水汽的持续输送以及热带气旋附近强上升运动的维持。两者的差异主要体现在动力抬升的维持机制以及大气不稳定度的增长方式。有冷空气影响时,热带气旋外围环流的斜压性及条件不稳定迅速增强,斜压区的倾斜上升运动推动暖湿空气持续抬升和对流发展,强降水区主要位于热带气旋北侧至东北侧;无冷空气影响时,低空及超低空急流的持续暖湿输送使得热带气旋中心及周边区域的条件不稳定明显增强,暖区辐合抬升配合潜热加热维持的深厚垂直上升运动有利于对流性降水的形成,强降水区主要位于热带气旋东侧至东北侧。
Abstract:Using dynamic synthesis method, this paper comparatively analyzes the reasons for heavy rainfall induced by tropical cyclones passing through Jiangsu Province with and without the influence of cold air. A meteorological model of heavy rainfall associated with tropical cyclones in Jiangsu is established. The results are that, regardless of the influence of cold air, tropical cyclones having moved into Jiangsu Province can induce heavy rainfall. The key reasons include the evolution of tropical cyclone’s asymmetric structure, the continuous water vapor transport by low-level jet streams, and the sustained strong upward motion near the tropical cyclone. The differences between the situations with and without the influence of cold air mainly lie in the maintenance mechanisms of dynamic uplift and the developing means of atmospheric instability. When cold air is present, baroclinicity and conditional instability within the peripheral circulation of tropical cyclone intensify rapidly. Slantwise ascending motion in the baroclinic zone promotes the sustained lifting of warm-moist air and enhances convective development, with heavy rainfall primarily located on the northern to northeastern side of tropical cyclone. When cold air is absent, continuous transport of warm-moist air by low-level and ultra-low-level jets significantly enhances the conditional instability near and around the center of tropical cyclone. The deep vertical updraft, which is maintained by convergence within the warm sector and further enhanced by latent heat release, favors the development of convective precipitation, with heavy rainfall mainly existing on the eastern to northeastern side of tropical cyclone.
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基金项目:江苏省气象局面上项目(KM202207)资助
引用文本:
沈澄,姜有山,戴竹君,李菁,缪颖绮,2026.冷空气对江苏地区热带气旋引发强降水的影响研究[J].气象,52(4):401-414.
SHEN Cheng,JIANG Youshan,DAI Zhujun,LI Jing,MIAO Yingqi,2026.Influence of Cold Air on the Heavy Rainfall Induced by Tropical Cyclones Passing Through Jiangsu Province[J].Meteor Mon,52(4):401-414.