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投稿时间:2025-02-08 修订日期:2025-07-10
投稿时间:2025-02-08 修订日期:2025-07-10
中文摘要: 基于宁波及其附近区域的7部S波段双极化天气雷达,研制了一种基于区域雷达组网的强对流天气监测预警方法,并通过43个强对流过程对其业务能力进行量化评估。结果表明:区域雷达组网每分钟提供的数据量约为宁波单站2.66倍,且可为1 km以下边界层提供更多的观测信息;方法可及时响应区域内的强对流天气,冰雹预警和下击暴流预警可分别提前实况约79.0 min和42.6 min;较宁波单站监测,方法识别对流初生提前约4.0 min,预警冰雹过程提前约12.2 min,预警下击暴流过程提前约13.3 min,且在评估个例中对γ中尺度对流系统引发下击暴流的预警命中率为100%;方法可适用于我国中东部、西部少部分及东北部少部分地区,覆盖面积约44 000 km2,且在长江三角洲地区、湖北至广州一带、安徽到山东一带有较好的应用潜力。
中文关键词: 区域雷达组网,监测预警,强对流天气
Abstract:Based on 7 S-band dual-polarization weather radars in Ningbo and its surrounding areas, the paper develops a monitoring and early warning method of regional radar network for severe convective weather. Then, the novel method is quantitatively evaluated through 43 cases of severe convective weather. The result shows that the amount of data provided per minute by the regional radar network is about 2.66 times that of the single-site radar in Ningbo. And the radar networt can provide more information for the observation of boundary layers below 1 km. The novel method can respond promptly to severe convective weather in the monitored area. Hail warning and downburst warning can be advanced about 79.0 min and 42.6 min ahead of the observation, respectively. Compared to the single-site radar station in Ningbo, the monitoring and early warning method of regional radar network can identify the convective initiation about 4.0 min in advance, and warn hail and downburst processes about 12.2 min and 13.3 min in advance, respectively. At the same time, the early warning hit rate of the regional radar network for downburst triggered by γ-MCS reaches 100%. The method can be applied to all the central-east part of China and a small portion of the western and northeastern regions, covering approximately 44 000 km2 area. Especially, the method could have a good application potential in the Yangtze River Delta, the area from Hubei to Guangzhou and the area from Anhui to Shandong.
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基金项目:国家自然科学基金气象联合基金项目(U2542216、U2342216)、国家自然科学基金青年项目(42205145)、中国气象局创新发展专项(CXFZ2026J066)和中国气象局决策气象服务专项重点项目(JCZX2023032)共同资助
| 作者 | 单位 |
| 陶局 | 宁波市气象服务中心,宁波 315012 中国气象局气象探测中心,北京 100081 中国气象局武汉暴雨研究所,武汉 430205 |
| 姚聃 | 中国气象局气象探测中心,北京 100081 |
| 肖艳姣 | 中国气象局气象探测中心,北京 100081 中国气象局武汉暴雨研究所,武汉 430205 |
| 滕玉鹏 | 中国气象局气象探测中心,北京 100081 |
引用文本:
陶局,姚聃,肖艳姣,滕玉鹏,2026.基于区域雷达组网的强对流天气监测预警方法[J].气象,52(4):415-431.
TAO Ju,YAO Dan,XIAO Yanjiao,TENG Yupeng,2026.A Monitoring and Early Warning Method Based on Regional Radar Network for Severe Convective Weather[J].Meteor Mon,52(4):415-431.
陶局,姚聃,肖艳姣,滕玉鹏,2026.基于区域雷达组网的强对流天气监测预警方法[J].气象,52(4):415-431.
TAO Ju,YAO Dan,XIAO Yanjiao,TENG Yupeng,2026.A Monitoring and Early Warning Method Based on Regional Radar Network for Severe Convective Weather[J].Meteor Mon,52(4):415-431.
