本文已被：浏览 0次 下载 0次
投稿时间：2024-11-29 修订日期：2025-09-25
投稿时间：2024-11-29 修订日期：2025-09-25
中文摘要: 夏季是渔业生产关键期，养殖池塘水温高、饱和溶氧量低，水生生物活动及代谢旺盛、耗氧量大，常导致养殖品种缺氧泛塘造成损失，而溶氧监测设备受水质制约，精度难以保证。开展夏季养殖水体溶氧量气象预测模型研究，可为淡水养殖溶解氧调控、泛塘风险预警及智能增氧系统集成提供参考，也可作为水质监测精度提升的解决方案。本研究基于江汉平原养殖池塘原位监测试验及气象观测站数据，分析了夏季分层溶氧时空变化规律，利用随机森林-支持向量回归（RF-SVR）开展了基于气象影响因子的溶氧量预测模型研究，并与多种回归模型进行对比。结果表明,夏季晴热高温天气,分层溶氧节律变化特征明显，07:00—08:00（北京时，下同）开始上升并随水深垂向递减，17:00—20:00达到峰值后开始下降且各层溶氧量逐渐接近，03:00—08:00溶氧量为日内最低；急剧降温寡照天气下,溶氧量迅速下降至2 mg·L-1以下并维持低溶氧。偏依赖关系分析表明，太阳总辐射辐照度、海平面气压、最高气温是养殖池塘夏季溶氧量变化的主要限制因子并具有滞后效应；基于RF-SVR的溶氧量气象预测模型，MAE、NSE、R2、RMSE分别为0.50 mg·L-1、0.63、0.77、0.66 mg·L-1，模拟精度及误差优于其他模型，能够较好地服务于池塘夏季溶氧量预测。
中文关键词: 晴热高温，溶氧量，泛塘，江汉平原，随机森林-支持向量回归
Abstract:Summer is a critical period for fishery production. Fishpond water has high temperature and low saturated dissolved oxygen, while aquatic organisms have vigorous metabolism and high oxygen consumption, so often leading to oxygen deficiency and economic losses. Dissolved oxygen monitoring equipment is limited by pond water quality, making it difficult to ensure monitoring accuracy. Research on meteorological prediction models for dissolved oxygen in summer aquaculture water can offer references for regulating dissolved oxygen, warning fishpond suffocation risks and integrating intelligent oxygenation systems, and can also offer solutions for improving fishpond water quality monitoring accuracy. Based on in-situ monitored dissolved oxygen and water temperature data in different layers of freshwater in fishponds and observed meteorological data from meteorological stations in Jianghan Plain, the spatio-temporal variation of layered dissolved oxygen in summer is analyzed. A real-time prediction model for dissolved oxygen based onmeteorological factors is established using the RF-SVR method and is compared with other models. The results show that the variation characteristics of dissolved oxygen in different layers are significant in sunny and hot weather in summer, that is, the dissolved oxygen starts to rise at 07:00-08:00 BT, decreases vertically with water depth, peaks at 17:00-20:00 BT, and then begins to decrease, with values in different layers getting close to each other gradually, and its lowest level appears at 03:00-08:00 BT. Under severe cooling and low-light conditions, pond dissolved oxygen rapidly drops to below 2 mg·L-1 and maintains a low-oxygen environment. Partial dependence analysis indicates that summer solar radiation exposure, sea-level pressure and maximum temperature are the main limiting factors for dissolved oxygen changes in aquaculture ponds and have a significant lag effect. The values of MAE, NSE, R2 and RMSE of meteorological prediction model for dissolved oxygen based on RF-SVR are 0.50 mg·L-1, 0.63, 0.77 and 0.66 mg·L-1 respectively, showing better simulation accuracy and smaller errors than those of other seven models and being more suitable for summer dissolved oxygen prediction.
文章编号： 中图分类号： 文献标志码：
基金项目:湖北省气象局重点科研项目（2022Z03）、湖北省自然科学基金气象创新发展联合基金项目（2025AFD418）、武汉市科技局气象科技联合项目（2023020201010577）和鄂州市科技计划项目（EZ01-002-20210154）共同资助
引用文本：
汤阳,刘志雄,洪涛,孟翠丽,李伟,刘可群,2025.基于RF-SVR模型的养殖池塘夏季溶氧量气象预测[J].气象,51(12):1656-1668.
TANG Yang,LIU Zhixiong,HONG Tao,MENG Cuili,LI Wei,LIU Kequn,2025.Meteorological Prediction of Dissolved Oxygen in Summer in Fishponds Based on RF-SVR Model[J].Meteor Mon,51(12):1656-1668.
汤阳,刘志雄,洪涛,孟翠丽,李伟,刘可群,2025.基于RF-SVR模型的养殖池塘夏季溶氧量气象预测[J].气象,51(12):1656-1668.
TANG Yang,LIU Zhixiong,HONG Tao,MENG Cuili,LI Wei,LIU Kequn,2025.Meteorological Prediction of Dissolved Oxygen in Summer in Fishponds Based on RF-SVR Model[J].Meteor Mon,51(12):1656-1668.
