2023年西北太平洋和南海台风预报精度评定

杨梦琪; 陈国民; 陈琛; 张喜平; 汤立春; 白莉娜; 郭蓉

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DOI:10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2025.090101

气象:2025,51(12):1669-1682

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2023年西北太平洋和南海台风预报精度评定

杨梦琪，陈国民，陈琛，张喜平，汤立春，白莉娜，郭蓉

(中国气象局上海台风研究所，上海 200030; 亚太台风研究中心，上海 201306; 中国气象局台风数值预报重点实验室，上海 200030)

Evaluation of Typhoon Forecast Accuracy in the Northwest Pacific and the South China Sea in 2023

YANG Mengqi,CHEN Guomin,CHEN Chen,ZHANG Xiping,TANG Lichun,BAI Lina,GUO Rong

(Shanghai Typhoon Institute, CMA, Shanghai 200030; Asia-Pacific Typhoon Collaborative Research Center, Shanghai 201306; Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Tropical Cyclone, CMA, Shanghai 200030)

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投稿时间：2025-04-24 修订日期：2025-09-11

中文摘要: 评定2023年西北太平洋和南海台风业务定位和定强、路径和强度预报精度，结果表明：2023年官方台风预报机构的台风定位误差总体平均为17.1 km，台风定强误差总体平均为2.8 m·s-1，定位精度相比2022年有所提高，而定强精度有所下降。主观和客观台风预报方法的24、48和72 h预报时效台风路径预报平均误差相比2022年有所减小，官方台风预报机构24 h路径预报平均误差创历史新低。客观预报方法中，ECMWF-IFS、NCEP-GFS、CMA-TRAMS路径预报平均误差相对较小。NCEP-GFS、CMA-TYM和ANNGA强度预报平均绝对误差普遍较小且技巧评分相对较高。

中文关键词: 台风，定位和定强误差，路径预报误差，强度预报误差

Abstract:Errors of typhoon operational position and intensity estimation, as well as errors of typhoon track and intensity forecast over the Northwest Pacific and the South China Sea in 2023 are evaluated. The results show that the mean error of typhoon position estimation by official typhoon forecasting agencies in 2023 was 17.1 km, and the mean error of typhoon intensity estimation was 2.8 m·s-1. Compared to the errors in 2022, the accuracy of typhoon position estimation got improved in 2023, whereas the accuracy of typhoon intensity estimation decreased. The mean errors of track forecasts with 24， 48 and 72 h lead time by subjective and objective forecast methods in 2023 were reduced than in 2022. In 2023, the mean errors of 24 h track forecast by the official typhoon forecasting agencies reached a historic low. Among objective forecasts, mean errors of track forecasts by ECMWF-IFS, NCEP-GFS, CMA-TRAMS were relatively small. Mean absolute errors of typhoon intensity forecasts by NCEP-GFS, CMA-TYM and ANNGA were generally small, and their intensity forecast skill scores were relatively high.

keywords: typhoon, position and intensity estimation error, track forecast error, intensity forecast error

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基金项目:上海市自然科学基金项目（R22ZR1476400）、中国气象局重点创新团队（台风团队）（CMA2023ZD06）和上海市气象局台风赛道团队共同资助

作者	单位
杨梦琪	中国气象局上海台风研究所，上海 200030 亚太台风研究中心，上海 201306 中国气象局台风数值预报重点实验室，上海 200030
陈国民	中国气象局上海台风研究所，上海 200030 亚太台风研究中心，上海 201306 中国气象局台风数值预报重点实验室，上海 200030
陈琛	中国气象局上海台风研究所，上海 200030 亚太台风研究中心，上海 201306 中国气象局台风数值预报重点实验室，上海 200030
张喜平	中国气象局上海台风研究所，上海 200030 亚太台风研究中心，上海 201306 中国气象局台风数值预报重点实验室，上海 200030
汤立春	中国气象局上海台风研究所，上海 200030 亚太台风研究中心，上海 201306
白莉娜	中国气象局上海台风研究所，上海 200030 亚太台风研究中心，上海 201306 中国气象局台风数值预报重点实验室，上海 200030
郭蓉	中国气象局上海台风研究所，上海 200030 亚太台风研究中心，上海 201306 中国气象局台风数值预报重点实验室，上海 200030

Author Name	Affiliation
YANG Mengqi	Shanghai Typhoon Institute, CMA, Shanghai 200030 Asia-Pacific Typhoon Collaborative Research Center, Shanghai 201306 Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Tropical Cyclone, CMA, Shanghai 200030
CHEN Guomin	Shanghai Typhoon Institute, CMA, Shanghai 200030 Asia-Pacific Typhoon Collaborative Research Center, Shanghai 201306 Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Tropical Cyclone, CMA, Shanghai 200030
CHEN Chen	Shanghai Typhoon Institute, CMA, Shanghai 200030 Asia-Pacific Typhoon Collaborative Research Center, Shanghai 201306 Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Tropical Cyclone, CMA, Shanghai 200030
ZHANG Xiping	Shanghai Typhoon Institute, CMA, Shanghai 200030 Asia-Pacific Typhoon Collaborative Research Center, Shanghai 201306 Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Tropical Cyclone, CMA, Shanghai 200030
TANG Lichun	Shanghai Typhoon Institute, CMA, Shanghai 200030 Asia-Pacific Typhoon Collaborative Research Center, Shanghai 201306
BAI Lina	Shanghai Typhoon Institute, CMA, Shanghai 200030 Asia-Pacific Typhoon Collaborative Research Center, Shanghai 201306 Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Tropical Cyclone, CMA, Shanghai 200030
GUO Rong	Shanghai Typhoon Institute, CMA, Shanghai 200030 Asia-Pacific Typhoon Collaborative Research Center, Shanghai 201306 Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Tropical Cyclone, CMA, Shanghai 200030

引用文本：
杨梦琪,陈国民,陈琛,张喜平,汤立春,白莉娜,郭蓉,2025.2023年西北太平洋和南海台风预报精度评定[J].气象,51(12):1669-1682.
YANG Mengqi,CHEN Guomin,CHEN Chen,ZHANG Xiping,TANG Lichun,BAI Lina,GUO Rong,2025.Evaluation of Typhoon Forecast Accuracy in the Northwest Pacific and the South China Sea in 2023[J].Meteor Mon,51(12):1669-1682.