本文已被:浏览 18次 下载 28次
投稿时间:2023-10-12 修订日期:2025-06-12
投稿时间:2023-10-12 修订日期:2025-06-12
中文摘要: 基于1920年9月5日贵阳国家基准气象站建站以来器测气温记录月报表,建立其百年最高、最低气温及气温日较差序列。经多种方法检验发现,1938—1944年最低气温、气温日较差与序列均值存在显著性差异,1937年、1944年、2000年序列出现断点。根据历史沿革、观测记录簿和天气报存根,多源、多站数据比对判定,1938—1944年报表中的日最高、最低气温不准确,数据改用观测簿记录。用1938—1949年日最高、最低气温均值与日气温差值,建立转换订正标尺,构建1921—1936年缺失日气温。站址迁移引起气温非均一,用本站初值和最优参考站逐年变化值递推订正,最终建立的贵阳近百年气温均一化序列与全球同期气温变化有较好的一致性。结果表明,近百年来,贵阳气温经历了两次较明显的“升温”,1937—1953年及始于1978年的升温,本轮升温1996年加速,2011年发生突变。贵阳近百年气温变化倾向率为0.12~0.14 ℃·(10 a)-1;最低气温自1929年以来震荡上升,以0.26~0.31 ℃·(10 a)-1的变化倾向率升温;气温日较差以-0.29~-0.27 ℃·(10 a)-1的变化倾向率减小;最高气温没有明显趋势变化。气温和最低气温秋、冬季升温速率高于春、夏季,2月升温最多,7月升温最少;升温主要由最低气温升高所致。
中文关键词: 气温,百年序列,倾向率,突变,贵阳
Abstract:Based on the monthly reports of the maximum and minimum temperatures recorded by instruments since the establishment of the Guiyang National Reference Meteorological Station on 5 September 1920, the sequences of the maximum and minimum temperatures and the diurnal temperature ranges over the past century in Guiyang are established. Through multiple verification methods of the sequences, it has been found that the minimum temperature and the diurnal temperature ranges from 1938 to 1944 had significant differences from the mean value of the sequences, with breakpoints in the sequences appearing in 1937, 1944 and 2000. According to the historical evolution, observation record books and weather report stubs, as well as the comparison of multi source and multi station data, the minimum and maximum temperatures from 1938 to 1944 in the reports are found to be inaccurate, thus the data for this period are replaced with the records from the observation record books. Using the mean values of daily maximum and minimum temperatures and the daily temperature differences in 1938-1949, a conversion and correction scale is established to construct the daily temperatures for the period from 1921 to 1936 when temperature records are missing. The non uniformity of temperature caused by station relocation is revised recursively by using the initial values of this station and the annual changes of the optimal reference station. The finally established homogenized temperature series of Guiyang over the past century shows a good consistency with the global temperature changes during the corresponding period. The results show that over the past century, the temperature in Guiyang has experienced two relatively significant “warming” stages, one from 1937 to 1953 and the other one since 1978. In the second warming stage, temperature rise was accelerated in 1996 and changed abruptly in 2011. The tendency rate of temperature change in Guiyang over the past century is 0.12℃ to 0.14℃ per decade, and the minimum temperature has been oscillating upward since 1929, warming up with a tendency rate of 0.26℃ to 0.31℃ per decade. The diurnal temperature ranges have been declining with a tendency rate of -0.29℃ to -0.27℃ per decade. There is no obvious trend variation in maximum temperature. The warming rates of temperature and minimum temperature in autumn and winter are higher than those in spring and summer. February is the month with warming, the most, while July is the month seeing warming, the least. The warming is mainly caused by the increase in minimum temperature.
文章编号: 中图分类号: 文献标志码:
基金项目:中国气象局山洪地质灾害防治气象保障工程项目(2019-04)和贵州省气象局省市联合基金项目(QHLSSLJ[2022]-12)共同资助
作者 | 单位 |
吴兴洋 | 贵州省气象信息中心,贵阳 550002 |
严小冬 | 贵州省山地气象科学研究所,贵阳 550081 |
金凡琦 | 贵州省气象服务中心,贵阳 550002 |
支亚京 | 贵州省气象信息中心,贵阳 550002 |
陈怡璇 | 贵州省气象信息中心,贵阳 550002 |
引用文本:
吴兴洋,严小冬,金凡琦,支亚京,陈怡璇,2025.贵阳近百年气温序列的建立及其变化[J].气象,51(9):1113-1127.
WU Xingyang,YAN Xiaodong,JIN Fanqi,ZHI Yajing,CHEN Yixuan,2025.Establishment and Change of Temperature Sequence in Guiyang over the Past Century[J].Meteor Mon,51(9):1113-1127.
吴兴洋,严小冬,金凡琦,支亚京,陈怡璇,2025.贵阳近百年气温序列的建立及其变化[J].气象,51(9):1113-1127.
WU Xingyang,YAN Xiaodong,JIN Fanqi,ZHI Yajing,CHEN Yixuan,2025.Establishment and Change of Temperature Sequence in Guiyang over the Past Century[J].Meteor Mon,51(9):1113-1127.
