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投稿时间：2024-05-20 修订日期：2025-03-29
投稿时间：2024-05-20 修订日期：2025-03-29
中文摘要: 华南地区是重要的水汽传输通道，研究该地区水汽收支有助于预测华南及周边区域降水过程和了解大气环流变化对我国天气气候的影响。本文利用ERA5再分析资料对华南地区近40年（1983—2022年）水汽收支变化趋势及与降水关系进行了分析。结果表明：华南地区水汽主要以西、南边界为输入，东、北边界为输出，净收支均为负值，水汽收支各边界均呈减少趋势，其中东边界输出减少显著，四季中春季输入输出减少最为明显；水汽主要通过印度洋—孟加拉湾西南方向和西太平洋东南方向进入华南地区，中低层（700 hPa）水汽多来自印度洋—孟加拉湾水汽输送，低层（925 hPa）多来自西太平洋水汽输送；近40年印度洋—孟加拉湾、西太平洋水汽输送减弱，华南地区出现由东北向西南方向水汽输送变化；广西、广东大部分地区水汽输送与降水量呈现正相关（相关系数>0.6），其中西南水汽输送加强是导致降水发生的关键原因。此外，华南地区有变湿趋势，近40年大气可降水量(PWV)增加2.32%，与区域水汽总输出减少趋势大于总输入减少趋势有关。本文研究结果可为深入理解华南地区水汽收支变化及异常降水事件提供参考依据。
中文关键词: 华南地区，水汽收支，整层水汽输送量，大气可降水量，降水
Abstract:South China is an important water vapor transport channel. Studying the water vapor budget in South China is essential for predicting precipitation processes in South China and its neighboring areas, and comprehending the impact of atmospheric circulation changes on weather and climate in China. Based on ERA5 data, the variation trend of water vapor budget and its correlation with precipitation in South China during the recent 40 years (1983-2022) are analyzed. The results show that water vapor in South China is mainly input through its the southern and western boundaries, and output through the northern and eastern boundaries, with the net budget being negative. The water vapor budget shows a declining trend, with a significant decrease in the output from the eastern boundary. In the four seasons, the input and output water vapor budget declines most obviously in spring. Water vapor enters into the South China Region mainly from the Indian Ocean and the Bay of Bengal in the southwest direction and western Pacific in the southwest direction. Water vapor in the middle and lower layers (700 hPa) is primarily transported from the Indian Ocean and the Bay of Bengal, while water vapor in the lower layer (925 hPa) mainly originates from western Pacific. In the recent 40 years, water vapor transport from the Indian Ocean and the Bay of Bengal and western Pacific has been weakening, causing the changes in water vapor transport from the direction of northeast to southwest in South China. Water vapor transport is positively correlated to precipitation in most areas of Guangxi and Guangdong, with correlation coefficient >0.6, of which the strengthening of southwestly water vapor transport is the key reason of precipitation. In addition, there is a trend of wetting in South China, with a 2.32% increase in precipitable water vapor (PWV) during the recent 40 years, which is the result of decrease in total water vapor outflow in the region than that of total inflow. The results of this study can provide a reference for further understanding of water vapor budget changes and abnormal precipitation events in South China.
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基金项目:中国气象局创新发展专项（CXFZ2024J061）、国家自然科学基金项目（42174027）、广西科技计划项目（桂科AB21075005）、北部湾大气水分循环综合观测试验（BEIGAWEX2023to2028）和中南半岛水循环综合观测暨中港大湾区水汽输送观测试验（GCSYJH23-04）共同资助
引用文本：
王乙竹,梁静舒,曹云昌,梁宏,粟华林,陶伟,罗晋,2025.近40年华南地区水汽收支变化特征及与降水的相关分析[J].气象,51(7):789-802.
WANG Yizhu,LIANG Jingshu,CAO Yunchang,LIANG Hong,SU Hualin,TAO Wei,LUO Jin,2025.Variation Characteristics of Water Vapor Budget and Its Correlation with Precipitation in South China During Recent 40 Years[J].Meteor Mon,51(7):789-802.
王乙竹,梁静舒,曹云昌,梁宏,粟华林,陶伟,罗晋,2025.近40年华南地区水汽收支变化特征及与降水的相关分析[J].气象,51(7):789-802.
WANG Yizhu,LIANG Jingshu,CAO Yunchang,LIANG Hong,SU Hualin,TAO Wei,LUO Jin,2025.Variation Characteristics of Water Vapor Budget and Its Correlation with Precipitation in South China During Recent 40 Years[J].Meteor Mon,51(7):789-802.
