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气象:2025,51(7):803-816
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1954—2022年武汉短历时强降水时空变化特征
姜琪,秦鹏程,刘火胜,史瑞琴
(武汉市黄陂区气象局,武汉430300; 湖北省气候中心,武汉 430074; 武汉市公共气象服务中心,武汉 430048)
Spatio-Temporal Variation of Short-Duration Heavy Rainfall in Wuhan from 1954 to 2022
JIANG Qi,QIN Pengcheng,LIU Huosheng,SHI Ruiqin
(Huangpi Meteorological Station of Wuhan, Wuhan 430300; Hubei Climate Center, Wuhan 430074; Wuhan Public Meteorological Service Center, Wuhan 430048)
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投稿时间:2024-07-13    修订日期:2025-02-24
中文摘要: 利用武汉市国家级气象观测站20世纪50年代以来的逐分钟降水观测资料,采用滑动累计法识别短历时强降水事件,通过模糊识别法确定单次降雨过程雨型,从发生频率、强度和雨型等方面系统分析武汉地区短历时强降水时空特征,并初步探究城市化对其的影响。结果表明:1954—2022年武汉短历时强降水事件的年均发生频次、年均强降水量、最大单次强降水量和最大60 min强降水量分别为6.9次、289.9 mm、282.2 mm和98.0 mm,总体呈微弱增加趋势,增速分别为0.3次·(10 a)-1、16.7 mm·(10 a)-1、0.9 mm·(10 a)-1和1.4 mm·(10 a)-1。其中,年强降水频次和年强降水量存在年代际特征,近似呈现“减—增—减—增”的“W”型。强降水持续时间以60~120 min的发生率和贡献率均最大,分别为41.6%和32.2%。年内强降水最强时间出现在6月下旬至7月中旬,占全年的33.6%;日内强降水频次近似呈单峰型,峰值出现在05:11—05:40(北京时,下同),波谷出现在15:58—16:47;平均分钟雨强呈多峰分布,主峰出现在16:04—17:34,波谷出现在07:53—08:27,白天平均分钟雨强大于夜间,尤其是14:00—20:00分钟雨强较大,春季平均分钟频次波峰和波谷较年平均有所提前。武汉强降水雨型以单峰前置(Ⅰ型)和均匀型(Ⅳ型)为主,其中历时0~60 min强降水以Ⅰ型和单峰居中型(Ⅲ型)为主,历时大于180 min 强降水则以Ⅳ型为主。武汉地区短时强降水空间差异较小,城区强降水频次、持续时间和强降水量略高于郊区。
Abstract:Based on the minute precipitation observation data from Wuhan national meteorological stations since 1950s, the sliding accumulation method is used to identify short-duration heavy rainfall events, and the fuzzy identification method is used to determine the rain types of every single rainfall event. In addition, the spatio-temporal characteristics of short-duration heavy rainfall in Wuhan are systematically analyzed from the aspects of occurrence frequency, intensity and rain type, and the influence of urbanization on short-duration heavy rainfall is preliminarily explored. The results show that from 1954 to 2022, the short-duration heavy rainfall events in Wuhan show a small increasing trend, which suggests that the averaged annual frequency of heavy rainfall, annual average heavy precipitation, annual maximum 60-min heavy precipitation and annual maximum single heavy precipitation are 6.9 times, 289.9 mm, 98.0 mm and 282.2 mm, while the increasing rates are 0.3 times per 10 a, 16.7 mm per 10 a, 1.4 mm per 10 a and 0.9 mm per 10 a, respectively. Among them, the frequency and amount of annual heavy precipitation exhibit interdecadal characteristics, approximately presenting a “W” shape of “decrease-increase-decrease-increase”. The occurrence rate and contribution of heavy rainfall lasting for 60-120 min are the largest, being 41.6% and 32.2%, respectively. Heaviest rainfall in Wuhan mainly occurs from late June to mid-July, accounting for 33.6% of the whole year. The frequency of daily heavy rainfall is approximately unimodal, while the peak value occurs in 05:11 BT-05:40 BT, and the trough value occurs in 15:58 BT-16:47 BT. The average minute rainfall intensity is distributed in multi-peaks, with the main peak value appearing in 16:04 BT-17:34 BT, and the trough vlaue could be found in 07:53 BT-08:27 BT. The average minute rain intensity during daytime is greater than that at night, especially during 14:00 BT-20:00 BT. The average frequency of peaks and valleys per minute in spring is earlier than the annual average. In terms of individual rain patterns, the heavy rainfall at each station in Wuhan is dominated by the type Ⅰ and type Ⅳ rain patterns, while the heavy rainfall in 0-60 min is dominated by the type Ⅰ and type Ⅲ, and the heavy rainfall in more than 180 min is mainly type Ⅳ. The spatial variability of short-duration heavy rainfall in Wuhan area is relatively small, and the frequency, duration and precipitation of heavy rainfallin urban area are slightly higher than those in suburban area.
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基金项目:湖北省自然科学基金项目(2023AFD098)、全国暴雨研究开放基金项目(BYKJ2024Q01)和海绵城市建设水系统科学湖北省重点实验室开放基金项目(武汉大学)(2022-04)共同资助
引用文本:
姜琪,秦鹏程,刘火胜,史瑞琴,2025.1954—2022年武汉短历时强降水时空变化特征[J].气象,51(7):803-816.
JIANG Qi,QIN Pengcheng,LIU Huosheng,SHI Ruiqin,2025.Spatio-Temporal Variation of Short-Duration Heavy Rainfall in Wuhan from 1954 to 2022[J].Meteor Mon,51(7):803-816.