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气象:2023,49(6):733-744
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睿图-大涡系统支撑北京冬奥会气象服务保障的评估分析
刘郁珏,苗世光,黄倩倩,李玉焕,张亦洲
(北京城市气象研究院,北京 100089)
Evaluation and Analysis of Meteorological Service for Beijing Winter Olympic Games Supported by RMAPS-LES Prediction System
LIU Yujue,MIAO Shiguang,HUANG Qianqian,LI Yuhuan,ZHANG Yizhou
(Institute of Urban Meteorology, CMA, Beijing 100089)
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投稿时间:2022-10-25    修订日期:2023-04-18
中文摘要: 为满足北京冬奥组委对气象预报提出的“百米级、分钟级”精细化需求,针对延庆和张家口赛区分别构建了由中尺度气象模式与大涡模拟耦合的百米微尺度预报系统“睿图-大涡”(RMAPS-LES),并对其2020—2022年赛事月份(2—3月)预报效果进行了对比检验。结果表明,微尺度RMAPS-LES相对于中尺度模式CMA-BJ对站点风、温表现出了较高的预报技巧。冬奥全站点三年平均的逐时 2 m温度、10 m风速、瞬时风向的绝对误差分别为1.85℃、 2.11 m·s-1、44.43°,较CMA-BJ分别降低了28%、23.6%、30.33%。RMAPS-LES具有详细刻画大气微尺度湍流运动的优势,其风速脉动值概率密度分布接近正态分布,与观测相近。研究还发现,在动力降尺度时,不同尺度模拟区域之间需采用过渡技术以加速大涡模拟区域内湍流的快速生成。RMAPS-LES采用了基于网格位温随机扰动的湍流生成方案,能有效缩短过渡区,快速达到能量平衡。其技术路线对风电厂微观选址、精细气象环境评估等预报精度要求较高的气象保障服务亦有借鉴意义。
Abstract:In this study, to meet the fine meteorological service requirements proposed by the Organizing Committee for the Beijing Winter Olympic Games, a real-time forecasting system with 100 m horizontal grid spacing RMAPS-LES which was coupled with mesoscale meteorological model and large eddy simulation was especially built for the Yanqing and Zhangjiakou competition zones. Based on the observation data of Winter Olympics zones and the 3 km×3 km horizontal grid spacing from “CMA-BJ” mesoscale forecast system, the RMAPS-LES results of the competion months (February to March) from 2020 to 2022 are compared and verified at different space-time scales. The results show that the high-resolution microscale RMAPS-LES has a higher prediction in forecasting wind and temperature than the CMA-BJ mesoscale model. The mean absolute error (MAE) of average hourly 2 m temperature of all stations in the three years for the Winter Olympic Games is 1.85℃, which is 28% less than the CMA-BJ model, the MAE of the hourly average 10 m wind speed is 2.11 m·s-1, which is 23.6% less and the instantaneous wind direction MAE is 44.43°, 30.33% lower. Relative to the CMA-BJ model, RMAPS-LES has the advantage of obtaining high-frequency data that can describe the atmospheric microscale turbulent motion in detail. The verification results indicate that the probability density distribution of wind speed fluctuation is basically close to the normal distribution, nearing the observations. It is also found that when dynamic downscaling is used, the inflow turbulence generation method needs to be used for different-scale simulation to accelerate the rapid generation of atmospheric turbulence in the large eddy simulation region. The RMAPS-LES uses the turbulence generation scheme based on random disturbance of grid potential temperature, which can substantially reduce the transitional zone and achieve fully developed turbulence. The technical route of RMAPS-LES can also be widely used in the wind power generators selection, forest fires, outdoor activities, and other scenes that have high requirements for fine local meteorological forecasts.
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基金项目:国家重点研发计划(2022YFC3004105)、国家自然科学基金项目(41705006、42275201和41905015)和北京市自然科学基金项目(8222050)共同资助
引用文本:
刘郁珏,苗世光,黄倩倩,李玉焕,张亦洲,2023.睿图-大涡系统支撑北京冬奥会气象服务保障的评估分析[J].气象,49(6):733-744.
LIU Yujue,MIAO Shiguang,HUANG Qianqian,LI Yuhuan,ZHANG Yizhou,2023.Evaluation and Analysis of Meteorological Service for Beijing Winter Olympic Games Supported by RMAPS-LES Prediction System[J].Meteor Mon,49(6):733-744.