Abstract:In this paper, based on two commonly used aircraft icing diagnostic indices and ERA5 reanalysis data as the atmospheric environmental field for icing occurrence, an aircraft icing diagnosis and forecasting method is constructed and hindcast for 25 collected spring icing cases over Eastern China. The spatial and temporal distribution characteristics of aircraft icing occurrence over typical cities at different latitudes in China are calculated separately, and the spatial and temporal distribution of icing areas over Xinchang, Zhejiang Province during one cold air activity case is simulated. In addition, several application scenarios of aircraft icing forecasting methods are proposed. The results indicate that among the selected icing cases, the diagnosis accuracy of icing index (IC) method is 80%, while that of the false frost point temperature empirical (TF) method is 92%. The effects of aircraft flight speed and power warming are taken into account by TF method, which has better correlation with ice water particle concentration and cloud cover in medium and low clouds, but the predicted icing intensity is not accurate enough without the real flight speed of the aircraft, and there are more false forecasts of icing intensity above 400 hPa altitude. In general, both the IC and TF methods can effectively diagnose the icing prone altitude layer and the icing prone time, and can effectively forecast the distribution of high altitude ice accumulation intensity at a certain station. In addition, the TF method can calculate the icing critical flight speed of the aircraft.