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气象:2023,49(4):400-414
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CMA-MESO 3 km系统2 m温度预报诊断
蔡怡,徐枝芳,朱克云,李泽椿
(成都信息工程大学,成都 610225; 国家气象中心,北京 100081; 中国气象局地球系统数值预报中心,北京 100081; 中国气象科学研究院灾害天气国家重点实验室,北京 100081)
Diagnosis of 2 m Temperature Prediction by CMA-MESO System with 3 km Resolution
CAI Yi,XU Zhifang,ZHU Keyun,LI Zechun
(Chengdu University of Information Technology, Chengdu 610225; National Meteorological Centre, Beijing 100081; Center for Earth System Modeling and Prediction of CMA, Beijing 100081; State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather, Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing 100081)
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投稿时间:2022-01-09    修订日期:2022-06-17
中文摘要: 诊断分析CMA-MESO (China Meteorological Administration Mesoscale Model,原GRAPES-MESO) 3 km系统冬季2 m温度预报效果,为冬奥气象保障服务以及CMA-MESO模式〖JP2〗系统开发优化改进提供参考,选取2020年12月至2021年2月〖JP〗2 m温度预报。诊断发现,每日低温预报较好,高温预报较差,00—06时(世界时,下同)升温过程预报效果好于06—21时降温过程。滑动双权重平均法订正显示,2 m温度预报偏差以系统性偏差为主,订正前均方根误差和标准差较大地区改善效果更为明显。依据温度订正前后标准差差异选择华北、华东、西南三个区域的个例和华北地区连续试验进行波谱分析发现,功率谱随着尺度增大逐渐增多,2 m温度预报偏差和2 m温度不同尺度功率谱信息存在一定的对应关系,当不同尺度上的功率谱存在缺失或异常大值时,2 m温度预报与实况存在明显差异。
Abstract:It is important to diagnose and analyze 2 m temperature prediction by CMA-MESO system with 3 km resolution in winter for the Winter Olympics meteorological service and CMA-MESO model system development. The 2 m temperature prediction data from December 2020 to February 2021 are selected and diagnosed. The results show that the daily low temperature prediction is better, but the high temperature prediction is poor. The prediction effect of the model on the heating process in 00-06 UTC is better than that of the cooling process in 06-21 UTC. When the 2 m temperature prediction is corrected by the moving-biweight average method, the correction results show that the 2 m temperature prediction deviation is mainly systematic deviation. The RMSE and standard deviation are reduced, especially in areas with large deviations before correction. According to the large difference of standard deviation before and after temperature correction, individual cases in North China, East China and Southwest China and the continuous test in North China are selected for wave spectrum analysis. It is found that the power spectrum energy gradually increases with the scale. There is a certain correspondence between the 2 m temperature prediction deviation and the power spectrum information of different scales. When value of power spectrum energy is very small or abnormally large, the difference between 2 m temperature prediction and observation is significant.
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基金项目:国家重点研发计划(2018YFF0300103、2018YFC1507600)共同资助
引用文本:
蔡怡,徐枝芳,朱克云,李泽椿,2023.CMA-MESO 3 km系统2 m温度预报诊断[J].气象,49(4):400-414.
CAI Yi,XU Zhifang,ZHU Keyun,LI Zechun,2023.Diagnosis of 2 m Temperature Prediction by CMA-MESO System with 3 km Resolution[J].Meteor Mon,49(4):400-414.