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气象:2023,49(3):351-364
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天气预报全流程检验评估程序库的设计与实现
刘凑华,代刊,林建,韦青,李妮娜,王宝利,唐步兴,郭云谦,朱文剑,唐健,曾晓青
(国家气象中心,北京 100081;北京文泽智远信息技术有限公司,北京 100081;广州数鹏通科技有限公司,广州 510650)
Design and Implementation of Whole Process Evaluation Program Library of Weather Forecast
LIU Couhua,DAI Kan,LIN Jian,WEI Qing,LI Nina,WANG Baoli,TANG Buxing,GUO Yunqian,ZHU Wenjian,TANG Jian,ZENG Xiaoqing
(National Meteorological Centre, Beijing 100081;Beijing Wenzezhiyuan Information Technology Co., Ltd., Beijing 100081;Guangzhou Shupengtong Technology Co., Ltd., Guangzhou 510650)
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投稿时间:2021-12-14    修订日期:2022-04-12
中文摘要: 为评估从数值预报、客观方法到主观预报产品各环节对天气预报准确率的贡献,研发了天气预报全流程检验评估程序库(Meteorological Evaluation Program Library,简称为MetEva)。MetEva以检验算法的全流程覆盖和检验结果的可对比性为目标,采用包含基础层和功能层的分层架构,基于统一的数据结构,设计了模块化的检验计算流程。围绕数据读取、数据合并与匹配、样本选取、样本分组、检验计算和结果输出等6个主要步骤,MetEva提供了6类400项功能函数。MetEva集成了5类54种检验算法,涵盖了大部分世界气象组织推荐和国内业务规范要求的检验算法,并对其计算流程进行改进,同时采用矩阵计算方式和并行算法来提升检验程序的计算效率。以温度和降水预报的检验评估为例,简要说明了MetEva的功能和使用方法,展示了MetEva在精细化检验评估方面的应用价值。该程序库已开源发布,可有效支撑全国各级气象部门开展天气预报全流程检验评估工作。
Abstract:In order to evaluate the contribution of each process from numerical forecast, objective method to subjective forecast products to the accuracy of weather forecast, the Meteorological Evaluation Program Library (MetEva) is developed. Aiming at the whole process coverage of the verification algorithm and the comparability of the evaluation results, MetEva adopts a hierarchical architecture including basic layer and functional layer, and designs a modular inspection and calculation process based on a unified data structure. The program library provides over 400 functions around the steps of data reading, data merging and matching, sample selection, sample grouping, inspection calculation and result output for verification. MetEva provides 54 evaluation methods in five categories, covering most of methods recommended by the World Meteorological Organization and algorithms in domestic specifications. By using matrix calculation in each module and providing parallel scheme for verification algorithms, the operation efficiency is improved. Taking the evaluation of temperature and precipitation forecast as an example, this paper briefly explains the application MetEva, and shows its value in verification. The program library has been released as open source, which can effectively support meteorological departments at all levels to carry out the evaluation of the whole process of weather forecast.
文章编号:     中图分类号:P409    文献标志码:
基金项目:国家重点研发计划(2018YFC1507205、2017YFC1502004、2018YFC1508102)共同资助
引用文本:
刘凑华,代刊,林建,韦青,李妮娜,王宝利,唐步兴,郭云谦,朱文剑,唐健,曾晓青,2023.天气预报全流程检验评估程序库的设计与实现[J].气象,49(3):351-364.
LIU Couhua,DAI Kan,LIN Jian,WEI Qing,LI Nina,WANG Baoli,TANG Buxing,GUO Yunqian,ZHU Wenjian,TANG Jian,ZENG Xiaoqing,2023.Design and Implementation of Whole Process Evaluation Program Library of Weather Forecast[J].Meteor Mon,49(3):351-364.