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气象:2023,49(3):365-378
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2022年汛期气候预测效果评述及先兆信号分析
章大全,袁媛,韩荣青
(国家气候中心,中国气象局气候研究开放实验室,北京 100081; 南京信息工程大学气象灾害预报预警与评估协同创新中心,南京 210044)
Overview of Climate Prediction for the Summer 2022 in China and Its Precursors
ZHANG Daquan,YUAN Yuan,HAN Rongqing
(Laboratory for Climate Studies, National Climate Centre, CMA, Beijing 100081;Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters (CIC-FEMD), Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing 210044)
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投稿时间:2022-11-28    修订日期:2023-02-10
中文摘要: 2022年汛期,国家气候中心准确预测了“全国气候年景总体偏差,区域性、阶段性旱涝灾害明显,降水空间差异显著,主要多雨区在我国北方”的总趋势,较好、较早把握了汛期主雨带位置和全国旱涝分布。对东亚夏季风和雨季季节进程“南海夏季风5月第3候爆发,长江中下游入梅偏早,梅雨量偏少,以及华北雨季开始偏早,雨量偏多”的预测与实况一致。对夏季台风生成个数较常年偏少,盛夏出现北上台风可能性大的预测与实况基本吻合。准确预测了全国平均气温趋势和高温异常特征。对“夏季我国中东部大部气温偏高,华东、华中、新疆等地高温日数较常年同期偏多,可能出现阶段性高温热浪”的预测与实况一致。主要不足之处是对长江中下游和川渝地区高温干旱的范围和极端程度估计不足。2022年汛期预测重点考虑连续La Ni〖AKn~D〗a事件和印度洋偶极子负位相对东亚夏季风环流的影响,夏季西太平洋副热带高压强度偏强,脊线位置偏北,东亚夏季风偏强,初夏东北冷涡活跃,导致汛期主雨带位于东北、华北和西北地区东部等地。
Abstract:The main characteristics of climate in summer 2022 were accurately predicted by National Climate Centre (NCC), including “the overall climate condition is unfavorable, with regional and phased floods and droughts, significantly uneven spatial distribution of rainfall, and the main anomalous-rainfall belt located in northern China”. The position of main anomalous-rainfall belt and spatial distribution of floods and droughts in China was well predicted in advance at the end of March 2022. The prediction of seasonal progress of East Asian summer monsoon and rainy season was also consistent with observations. For example, the onset date of South China Sea summer monsoon was in the 3rd pentad of May, earlier and less Meiyu occurred over the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River, the rainy season of North China started earlier than the climatology with above-normal precipitation, etc. The predicted less-generated tropical cyclones over western North Pacific and high probability of northward-moving typhoons in the summer were basically in line with the observations. The hot summer in 2022 and the spatial pattern of temperature anomalies in China were well captured. The prediction of “the temperature in most part of central and eastern China and Xinjiang is above normal, with more high temperature days and heat waves” was in good agreement with the observations. The main deficiency of the prediction was the underestimation of the spatial coverage and extremity of the record-breaking heat wave and drought in the Middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River and the Sichuan and Chongqing regions. The prediction of flood season in 2022 was mainly based on the impact of multiyear La Ni〖AKn~D〗a event and the tropical Indian Ocean dipole mode on the summer monsoon circulation over East Asia. The intensity of western Pacific subtropical high was abnormally strong with northward displacement of the ridge line. With the intensified East Asian summer monsoon, and active northeast cold vortex in early summer, the above factors synergistically contributed to the formation of main anomalous-rainfall belt in Northeast China, North China, and eastern part of Northwest China.
文章编号:     中图分类号:P461    文献标志码:
基金项目:国家自然科学基金项目(41975091、42175047、41605078、41776039)、国家自然科学基金委员会-云南省人民政府联合基金项目(U1902209)和中国长江三峡集团有限公司项目(0704181)共同资助
引用文本:
章大全,袁媛,韩荣青,2023.2022年汛期气候预测效果评述及先兆信号分析[J].气象,49(3):365-378.
ZHANG Daquan,YUAN Yuan,HAN Rongqing,2023.Overview of Climate Prediction for the Summer 2022 in China and Its Precursors[J].Meteor Mon,49(3):365-378.