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投稿时间：2021-11-12 修订日期：2022-08-14
投稿时间：2021-11-12 修订日期：2022-08-14
中文摘要: 通过雷达外推及高分辨率数值模式预报相互订正融合，建立了时效6 h的长三角地区短时临近融合定量降水预报产品。采用一种主流的融合方案，并在外推、模式订正和融合方案上进行改进，完成了基于长三角地区11部雷达反射率组网和数值预报资料的COTREC外推扩展,基于韦伯变换的数值预报强度修正和基于目标识别匹配的位相修正,基于回波尺度和预报时效的动态权重系数调整和基于实况降水的动态Z R关系选择等技术开发。结果表明融合方法能够延长外推预报时效，订正数值模式预报的强度及位置误差，预报效果总体优于两者。
中文关键词: 短时临近融合,雷达反射率预报,目标识别,模式订正
Abstract:In this paper, radar extrapolation and high-resolution numerical weather prediction (NWP) are blended to get a 6 h quantitative precipitation forecast for the Yangtze River Delta Region of China. The method used here is based on a mainstream blending framework, and modifications and calibrations are conducted done to both the extrapolation and NWP to improve the result. The traditional COTREC extrapolation is extended by using a mosaic system of 11 radars within the region and NWP data. Intensity and position calibration for the NWP are conducted based on Weibull function fitting and object recognition. A weighted blending of extrapolation and NWP is then carried out based on scale and forecast time. Finally, real-time Z-R relation conversion is performed. The results show that the blending method can extend forecast time of the extrapolation forecast, and calibrate the intensity and position bias of NWP, thus making a better result as a whole.
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基金项目:国家重点研发计划（2018YFC1507606）和上海市科学技术委员会科研计划（19dz1200102）共同资助
| 作者 | 单位 |
| 储海 | 上海中心气象台，上海 200030 |
| 孙敏 | 上海中心气象台，上海 200030 |
| 刘梦娟 | 中国气象局上海台风研究所，上海 200030 |
| 陈雷 | 上海中心气象台，上海 200030 |
| 戴建华 | 上海中心气象台，上海 200030 |
| 钟琦 | 中国气象局气象干部培训学院，北京 100081 |
| 茅懋 | 上海中心气象台，上海 200030 |
引用文本：
储海,孙敏,刘梦娟,陈雷,戴建华,钟琦,茅懋,2023.长三角地区短时临近融合定量降水预报[J].气象,49(2):188-200.
CHU Hai,SUN Min,LIU Mengjuan,CHEN Lei,DAI Jianhua,ZHONG Qi,MAO Mao,2023.Quantitative Precipitation Forecast by Blending Radar Extrapolation and Numerical Weather Prediction in the Yangtze River Delta Region[J].Meteor Mon,49(2):188-200.
储海,孙敏,刘梦娟,陈雷,戴建华,钟琦,茅懋,2023.长三角地区短时临近融合定量降水预报[J].气象,49(2):188-200.
CHU Hai,SUN Min,LIU Mengjuan,CHEN Lei,DAI Jianhua,ZHONG Qi,MAO Mao,2023.Quantitative Precipitation Forecast by Blending Radar Extrapolation and Numerical Weather Prediction in the Yangtze River Delta Region[J].Meteor Mon,49(2):188-200.
