###
气象:2022,48(8):993-1006
本文二维码信息
码上扫一扫!
山东一次浅薄冷空气触发强降水过程的对流系统组织形态演变分析
高帆,俞小鼎,尹承美,李瑞,褚颖佳,焦洋
(山东省气象防灾减灾重点实验室,济南 250031; 济南市气象局,济南 250102; 中国气象局气象干部培训学院,北京 100081)
Analysis on the Evolution of Convective System Organization in a Process of Severe Precipitation Triggered by Shallow Cold Air in Shandong
GAO Fan,YU Xiaoding,YIN Chengmei,LI Rui,CHU Yingjia,JIAO Yang
(Key Laboratory for Meteorological Disaster Prevention and Mitigation of Shandong Province, Jinan 250031; Jinan Meteorological Bureau, Jinan 250102; China Meteorological Administration Training Centre, Beijing 100081)
摘要
图/表
参考文献
相似文献
本文已被:浏览 297次   下载 1228
投稿时间:2021-05-10    修订日期:2022-04-09
中文摘要: 2015年7月30日山东突发较大范围暖区极端强降水,由于触发机制不明显、且对对流系统的发展方向判断不足,导致预报偏差较大。利用多源探测资料对此次过程对流系统的触发和组织形态演变机理进行分析,结果表明,高空槽和低空急流构成了深厚湿对流生成发展的有利形势,对流发生前水汽和热力条件有利,云图和雷达上呈现的水平对流卷进一步提高了对流生成和发展的潜势。初始对流由浅薄冷空气经渤海南下侵入山东北部触发,发展加强后产生地面冷池和阵风锋,阵风锋继续触发对流,形成后向发展(相对于风暴承载层平均风向,即平流方向)的多单体风暴,此阶段环境低层风向决定了对流风暴的发展方向。对流系统组织维持的机制为:冷池加强和对流风暴发展形成正反馈,冷池与环境低层垂直风切变达到动态平衡,多单体逐渐发展为线状中尺度对流系统(LMCS),且随着深层垂直风切变逐渐增强,LMCS结构逐渐紧密。对流系统减弱消亡的机制为:地面冷池受鲁中山区地形阻挡,主体滞留在山东中部,冷池前沿阵风锋强度迅速减弱,LMCS断裂为东西两段,在不利的低层垂直风切变配置下先后减弱消亡。RKW理论适用于解释此次LMCS组织形态的演变。
Abstract:On 30 July 2015, a warm-sector extreme severe precipitation process broke out in a wide range of Shandong Province, and the prediction deviation was large because the triggering mechanism was not obvious and the forecasters’ judgment of the development direction of the convection system was insufficient. By using multi-source observational data, the triggering mechanism and evolution of convective system organization are analyzed in this paper. The results show that the upper trough and the low-level jet favored the occurrence and development of the deep wet convection. There was sufficient water vapor and favorable thermal condition before the convection. The horizontal convective rolls shown on the cloud and radar images indicated that the potential of convection generation and development was enhanced. The cold air intruded into northern Shandong through Bohai Sea and triggered the original convection, which further strengthened, generating the surface cold pool and the gust front. The gust front continued to trigger convection, forming a backward developing multi-cell storm. At this stage, the low-level environmental wind direction determined the development direction of convective storm. The mechanism for the organization and maintenance of the convective system is as follows: the strengthening of the surface cold pool and the development of convective storms formed a positive feedback, the surface cold pool and low-level environmental vertical wind shear reached a dynamic balance, and the multi-cell storm gradually developed into a linear mesoscale convective system (LMCS). With the gradual enhancement of the deep vertical wind shear, the structure of LMCS became closer.The mechanism of weakening and extinction of convective system is as follows: blocked by the terrain in the middle mountain area of Shandong Province, the main body of the surface cold pool remained in the central part of Shandong Province, the intensity of the gust front in the front of the cold pool decreased rapidly, and the LMCS was divided into east and west segments, then the east and west segments of the LMCS weakened and died out under the unfavorable low-level vertical wind shear. The RKW theory is applicable to explain the evolution of the LMCS organization.
文章编号:     中图分类号:    文献标志码:
基金项目:国家自然科学基金面上项目(41775044)、中国气象局预报员专项(CMAYBY2019-063)、山东省气象局预报员专项(SDYBY2017-07、SDYBY2019-05、SDYBY2020-04)和山东省气象局青年基金项目(2019SDQN10)共同资助
引用文本:
高帆,俞小鼎,尹承美,李瑞,褚颖佳,焦洋,2022.山东一次浅薄冷空气触发强降水过程的对流系统组织形态演变分析[J].气象,48(8):993-1006.
GAO Fan,YU Xiaoding,YIN Chengmei,LI Rui,CHU Yingjia,JIAO Yang,2022.Analysis on the Evolution of Convective System Organization in a Process of Severe Precipitation Triggered by Shallow Cold Air in Shandong[J].Meteor Mon,48(8):993-1006.