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气象:2021,47(10):1193-1205
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全球模式降水预报在雅砻江流域汛期的效果检验
王晓峰,周荣卫
(华风气象传媒集团有限责任公司,北京 100081; 北京玖天气象科技有限公司,北京 100081)
Performance Verification of Global Precipitation Forecast over Yalong River Basin in Flood Season
WANG Xiaofeng,ZHOU Rongwei
(Huafeng Meteorological Media Group Co., Ltd., Beijing 100081; Beijing Jiutian Weather Science and Technology Co., Ltd., Beijing 100081)
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投稿时间:2020-08-22    修订日期:2021-07-01
中文摘要: 结合气象和水文观测资料,检验分析了ECMWF-IFS、NCEP-GFS、GRAPES-GFS三种全球模式在雅砻江流域2018年汛期的日降水预报。总体上,三天内三种降水预报与站点观测的一致性较好,可以较为准确地预报晴雨和小雨,漏报现象少,但空报偏多;对中到大雨的预报能力有限,空报或漏报都很普遍;在雅砻江流域,全球模式对于东移高原槽配合西南暖湿气流背景下的降水预报效果最优,低层切变影响下的降水预报效果最差,而当西伸副热带高压占据主导时,全球模式的降水预报表现不稳定。对比三种降水预报发现:整体预报效果的优劣排序为ECMWF-IFS、GRAPES-GFS、NCEP-GFS,但各模式对不同量级降水的预报效果存在差异:对于弱降水,GRAPES-GFS的预报最优,NCEP-GFS次之,ECMWF-IFS的预报效果较差,空报现象偏多;而当降水达中雨及以上量级时,ECMWF-IFS的检验评分最高,GRAPES-GFS稍逊之,但仍优于NCEP-GFS,后者易出现漏报;此外,ECMWF-IFS预报的降水量偏多,而其余两者的降水量偏少。
Abstract:The precipitation forecasts made by three global models, ECMWF-IFS, NCEP-GFS, and GRAPES-GFS, are verified based on the meteorological and hydrological observations over Yalong River Basin in western Sichuan Province in 2018 flood season. Generally, the 3 d precipitation forecasts of the three models consist fairly well with observations, especially for light rains in which omissions are less but false alarms are more common. However, in moderately and heavily rainy days, precipitation forecasts appear less useful. These forecasts work the best when east-moving plateau trough coupled with southwest stream dominates, but are the worst when weather induced by low-level shears along with southwest stream is more prevailing. When the west-extending subtropical high dominates, their skills in predicting rainfall are unstable. Moreover, intercomparisons of these three precipitation forecasts show that in Yalong River Basin ECMWF-IFS performs best, GRAPES-GFS ranks next, but more care needs to be taken when NCEP-GFS is applied in daily operation. ECMWF-IFS usually forecasts more rainfall and its TS scores for moderate and heavy rains are usually higher than the TS scores of the other two models, but it more probably makes false alarms for light rains. Precipitation forecasted by GRAPES-GFS is less than others, TS scores for light rains are the highest among the three models, while its ability of predicting moderate and heavy rains is still weaker than ECMWF-IFS. NCEP-GFS can forecast light rain well, but more easily misses moderate and heavy rains.
文章编号:     中图分类号:P456,P49    文献标志码:
基金项目:国家重点研发计划(2018YFC1507801)和中国电力建设股份有限公司项目(DJ-ZDZX-2016-02)共同资助
引用文本:
王晓峰,周荣卫,2021.全球模式降水预报在雅砻江流域汛期的效果检验[J].气象,47(10):1193-1205.
WANG Xiaofeng,ZHOU Rongwei,2021.Performance Verification of Global Precipitation Forecast over Yalong River Basin in Flood Season[J].Meteor Mon,47(10):1193-1205.