Abstract:Precipitation is the main cause of geological disasters. Geological disaster meteorological risk mainly exists in casualties, property damages and the expected loss of interrupted economic activities that are caused by geological disasters. Geological disaster meteorological risk degree can be expressed as the product of disaster probability of precipitation factor times environment potential risk degree, and further times vulnerability degree in numerical data. The effective rainfall data are selected as precipitation factor, and hereby, the geological disaster probability fitting equations of effective rainfall for nine regions are established. The potential risk of geological disaster is evaluated by the information method of the underlying surface environments and the vulnerability degree is employed to a simplified assessing model, which was related to three aspects of GDP, land use and population. Then, the geological disaster meteorological risk forecasting model is constructed. By using the products of QPE and QPF in high resolution, the mesh refinement business test of risk model is established. Compared with geological disaster records, the results are illustrated to be reliable.