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气象:2020,46(10):1320-1329
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海雾客观预报方法在精细化网格预报中的应用
曹越男,刘涛,杨正龙,张增海,赵伟,王慧
(国家气象中心,北京 100081)
Application of Sea Fog Objective Prediction Method in Fine Gridded Weather Forecasting
CAO Yuenan,LIU Tao,YANG Zhenglong,ZHANG Zenghai,ZHAO Wei,WANG Hui
(National Meteorological Centre, Beijing 100081)
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投稿时间:2019-10-06    修订日期:2020-08-29
中文摘要: 为推进海洋气象精细化网格预报建设,国家气象中心从2013年开始研发海雾客观预报方法,对基于配料法建立的海雾客观预报方法不断进行改进,并研发了基于决策树方法的海雾预报方法和海雾预报指数预报产品,客观方法对我国北部海区主要海雾过程预报效果较好,对2018年我国北部海区有无雾的24 h预报TS评分平均为0.25左右。将海雾客观预报产品集成应用于海洋气象智能网格预报背景场的生成规则中,生成天气现象网格预报结果,为主观预报订正提供了有力的支撑。基于精细化网格预报生成的海雾主观预报结果对2018年黄海中部和南部大雾预报的24 h TS评分接近0.25,对北部湾大雾预报的24 h TS评分在0.15左右。
Abstract:In order to promote the construction of fine gridded forecasting of marine meteorology, National Meteorological Centre began to develop the objective forecasting method of sea fog in 2013. The objective forecasting method of sea fog based on ingredients based methodology has been continuously improved. The method of sea fog forecasting based on decision tree method and the product of sea fog forecast index forecasting have been developed. The main sea fog processes in the northern part of China offshore sea can be well forecasted based on objective methods. The average 24 h fog occurrence TS score of objective method in the northern part of China offshore sea in 2018 is about 0.25. Sea fog prediction method based on ingredients based methodology was applied into the generation rules of weather phenomena background fields, and the objective method results have provided strong support for subjective forecasting. The 24 h dense fog TS scores of subjective sea fog prediction results in 2018 based on fine gridded prediction get close to 0.25 in the central and southern Yellow Sea, and 0.15 in the Beibu Gulf.
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基金项目:国家重点研发计划(2019YFC1510104)、中国气象科学研究院灾害天气国家重点实验室开放课题(2015LASW-A11)和中国气象局预报员专项(CMAYBY2019-141)共同资助
引用文本:
曹越男,刘涛,杨正龙,张增海,赵伟,王慧,2020.海雾客观预报方法在精细化网格预报中的应用[J].气象,46(10):1320-1329.
CAO Yuenan,LIU Tao,YANG Zhenglong,ZHANG Zenghai,ZHAO Wei,WANG Hui,2020.Application of Sea Fog Objective Prediction Method in Fine Gridded Weather Forecasting[J].Meteor Mon,46(10):1320-1329.