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气象:2020,46(3):412-419
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延伸期温度预报误差订正技术初探
尹姗,李勇,马杰,邓星,蔡芗宁
(国家气象中心,北京 100081; 龙源电力集团股份有限公司,北京 100034)
Preliminary Study on Bias Correction for the Extended-Range Temperature Forecast
YIN Shan,LI Yong,MA Jie,DENG Xing,CAI Xiangning
(National Meteorological Centre, Beijing 100081; China Longyuan Power Group Corporation Limited, Beijing 100034)
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投稿时间:2019-04-22    修订日期:2020-02-25
中文摘要: 应用滑动平均误差订正方法和历史偏差订正方法,对欧洲中期天气预报中心的数值模式延伸期2 m温度预报进行误差订正。研究发现,应用滑动平均误差订正方法进行11~15 d逐日温度预报订正时,25~30 d是最优的训练期长度。对2018年订正预报的检验分析显示,应用上述两种误差订正方法均可减小模式预报的系统偏差,有效修正模式温度预报较实况明显偏低的问题,并将预报准确率提高30%以上。在6—10月,订正后的温度预报平均绝对误差基本在2℃以内,具有一定的参考性,其业务化产品可支撑预报员的业务预报需求。在15 d内的延伸期预报时效上,两种订正方法对温度预报的订正效果差异并不明显。随着时效的延长,历史偏差订正方法的优势逐渐显现。
Abstract:The moving mean bias correction method and the historical deviation correction method are used to correct the error of the extended-range 2 m temperature forecast of the ECMWF numerical model. Through the study of the moving training period, the optimal training period length of the moving mean bias correction method is 25-30 days for daily temperature forecast from 11 to 15 days. The verification of corrected temperature forecast in 2018 shows that the application of these two temperature deviation correction methods can correct the deviation that the temperature forecast in model is significantly lower than observation, and improve the forecast accuracy by 30% at least. The mean absolute error of the corrected temperature forecast is basically less than 2℃ from June to October, which has certain reference value and could provide good support for forecasters. There is no obvious difference between the two methods in the bias correction effect of the extended-range forecast within 15 days. With the extension of forecast lead time, the advantages of the historical deviation correction method show up gradually.
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基金项目:国家科技支撑计划(2015BAC03B04和2015BAC03B07)和中国气象局气象预报业务关键技术发展专项[YBGJXM(2018)04]共同资助
引用文本:
尹姗,李勇,马杰,邓星,蔡芗宁,2020.延伸期温度预报误差订正技术初探[J].气象,46(3):412-419.
YIN Shan,LI Yong,MA Jie,DENG Xing,CAI Xiangning,2020.Preliminary Study on Bias Correction for the Extended-Range Temperature Forecast[J].Meteor Mon,46(3):412-419.