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气象:2020,46(3):403-411
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基于RMAPS-CHEM模式产品的北京地区能见度预报订正
王媛媛,赵玮,邢楠,付宗钰,李杭玥
(北京市气象台,北京 100089)
Visibility Forecast Correction Based on RMAPS-CHEM Model Products in Beijing
WANG Yuanyuan,ZHAO Wei,XING Nan,FU Zongyu,LI Hangyue
(Beijing Weather Forecast Center, Beijing 100089)
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投稿时间:2018-09-19    修订日期:2019-10-08
中文摘要: 基于RMAPS-CHEM空间分辨率为3 km的逐小时能见度预报产品,考虑到不同区域、不同时效及不同级别的预报误差不同,对北京区域各站点能见度观测值与模式预报结果进行比较和分时段逐级偏差订正,以2016年数据为样本,并对2017年数据检验。订正结果表明该统计订正方案对2017年能见度预报有较好的订正效果,不仅可以较好地改善其对高海拔地区的高估现象,也能更好地预报出低能见度现象。以2017年1月为例,北京观象台站能见度平均偏差及均方根误差都有所降低,0~24 h分级预报准确率均有所提高。同时,对优化后结果进行合理插值,并应用于北京iGrAPS无缝隙智能网格预报分析系统,得到北京地区1 km空间分辨率的0~96 h时效能见度预报产品,从而为雾、霾等低能见度天气现象的预报提供支撑。
Abstract:This study conducted experiments based on the hourly visibility forecast products with spatial resolution of 3 km by RMAPS-CHEM. The data in 2016 were taken as a sample, and the model forecasts and observations from each site were compared. The bias was corrected step by step, by considering diffe- rent forecasting errors in different regions, periods and levels. 〖JP2〗The data for 2017 were used for verification. The results show that statistical bias correction has a good correction effect on visibility forecast for 2017, which could not only improve the visibility overestimation in high altitude areas, but also better predict the low visibility phenomenon. Taking January 2017 as an example, the average deviation and root mean square error of Beijing Guanxiangtai Station were reduced, and the accuracy of 0-24 h grading forecasting was improved. Also, the optimized results were reasonably interpolated and applied to the Beijing Integrated Grid Analysis Prediction Systems (iGrAPS) to provide the visibility forecast product in Beijing for 0-96 h with 1 km spatial resolution, which could better support the forecast of low-visibility weather phenomena such as fog and haze.
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基金项目:北京市气象局科技项目(BMBKJ201701010)、中国气象局气象预报业务关键技术发展专项(YBGJXM(2017)3-01)共同资助
引用文本:
王媛媛,赵玮,邢楠,付宗钰,李杭玥,2020.基于RMAPS-CHEM模式产品的北京地区能见度预报订正[J].气象,46(3):403-411.
WANG Yuanyuan,ZHAO Wei,XING Nan,FU Zongyu,FU Zongyu,2020.Visibility Forecast Correction Based on RMAPS-CHEM Model Products in Beijing[J].Meteor Mon,46(3):403-411.