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气象:2019,45(12):1747-1755
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集合预报在渤海极大风预报中的应用
胡海川,周军
(国家气象中心,北京 100081)
Application of Ensemble Extreme Wind Forecast in Bohai Sea
HU Haichuan,ZHOU Jun
(National Meteorological Centre, Beijing 100081)
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投稿时间:2018-06-21    修订日期:2019-10-04
中文摘要: 利用2015年2月至2018年2月地面气象常规观测中逐小时极大风及欧洲中期天气预报中心集合预报中6 h极大风预报数据,选取渤海海域代表站点,对集合预报极大风产品进行预报误差特征分析。分析表明:集合预报极大风产品的离散度明显偏小于均方根误差,各个预报成员的预报结果集中与否并不能反映出预报可信度。受模式预报能力所限,无法简单通过集合预报选取出最为可信的预报结果。集合平均、第75%分位值、最大值在极大风预报中各有优劣,因此基于以上三个统计量及不同量级风速发生的频率建立了渤海极大风预报客观订正方法,试验对比分析表明,该订正方法可以使极大风预报准确率有效的提高,为大风天气过程预报提供重要参考。
Abstract:By using the hourly extreme wind from the conventional meteorological observation and the 6 h extreme wind forecast data from ECMWF between February 2015 and February 2018, the representative stations in the Bohai Sea were selected to analyze the prediction error characteristics of the extreme wind products in the ensemble forecast. The analysis showed that the spread of the extreme wind product in ensemble forecasting is obviously smaller than the root mean square error, and whether the forecasting results of each forecasting member are concentrated or not cannot reflect the reliability of forecasting. Due to the limitation of model prediction ability, it is impossible to select the most credible prediction results simply by ensemble prediction. The ensemble average, the 75th percentile and maximum ensemble forecasting have their own advantages and disadvantages in extreme wind forecasting. Therefore, based on the above three statistics and the frequency of different magnitude wind speed occurrence, an objective correction method for extreme wind forecasting in the Bohai Sea is established. The comparative analysis of experiments shows that the correction method can effectively improve the accuracy of extreme wind forecasting, which can provide important references for the forecast of extreme wind process.
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基金项目:国家重点研发计划(2017YFC1501604)和国家自然科学基金项目(4177050378)共同资助
引用文本:
胡海川,周军,2019.集合预报在渤海极大风预报中的应用[J].气象,45(12):1747-1755.
HU Haichuan,ZHOU Jun,2019.Application of Ensemble Extreme Wind Forecast in Bohai Sea[J].Meteor Mon,45(12):1747-1755.