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气象:2019,45(10):1382-1391
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ECMWF极端降水预报指数在华东台风暴雨中的应用研究
罗玲,娄小芬,傅良,钱浩
(浙江省气象台,杭州 310007)
Application of Precipitation Extreme Forecast Index from ECMWF in Typhoon Rainstorm in East China
LUO Ling,LOU Xiaofen,FU Liang,QIAN Hao
(Zhejiang Meteorological Observatory, Hangzhou 310017)
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投稿时间:2018-05-19    修订日期:2019-05-29
中文摘要: 台风强降水易引发极端天气事件,预报的难度和不确定性都很大。选取2013—2017年影响华东的13个台风个例,研究ECMWF集合预报降水极端天气预报指数 (extreme forecast index,EFI)与台风暴雨的统计关系。研究结果表明:EFI降水指数对台风暴雨的预报具有一定的指示意义,对不同时效选取不同的EFI阈值可以作为暴雨落区预报的参考依据。总体来看:EFI增大,发生强降水的可能性增大;随着预报时效的增加,EFI阈值逐渐减小。以TS评分最大为标准,分别确立了不同时效、不同等级暴雨在华东区域的预报阈值。对于24、48、72、96 h时效的暴雨预报,EFI阈值分别取0.7/0.8、0.7、0.6、0.5可以获得较高的TS评分及合理的预报偏差,因此可将它们作为不同时效暴雨预报的参考阈值。EFI与降水的气候百分位有较好的相关关系,EFI值越大,降水气候百分位值也越大。当EFI值较大时,可参考相对应气候百分位的实况降水量来估测台风降水。极端天气预报指数对极端降水天气具有较好的识别能力,可提前 3~5 d提供极端降水信息。
Abstract:The typhoon heavy rainfall can easily induce an extreme weather event, and it is difficult to predict. In this study, we investigate the statistical relationship between the precipitation extreme forecast index (EFI) from ECMWF ensemble forecast system and the observed typhoon heavy rainfall with 13 typhoons that affected East China during 2013-2017. The results show that the EFI is a good indicator to predict the typhoon rainfall. Different EFI thresholds should be used as the reference for precipitation of rainstorm area. Overall, the possibility of heavy rainfall occurrence increases with the increase of EFI. The threshold of EFI gradually decreases when the forecast lead time increases. With the criteria of TS maximization, the EFI thresholds for different lead times and different storm levels are estimated in East China. Higher TS scores and reasonable BS scores are obtained when the thresholds are 0.7/0.8, 0.7, 0.6, 0.5 for rainstorm precipitation with lead time of 24, 48, 72, 96 h, respectively. Therefore, they can be used as EFI thresholds for different lead times. Significant positive correlation is found between the EFI and the climatic percentile of precipitation. The larger precipitation percentile appears when the EFI increases. When the EFI is prominently large, the typhoon rainfall can be estimated with the corresponding climatic percentile of observed rainfall. The EFI is a good indicator for extreme rainfall, and can predict the situation 3-5 days in advance.
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基金项目:中国气象局关键技术发展专项(YBGJXM(2018)1B-06)、浙江省气象科技计划重点项目(2017ZD03)与中国气象局台风预报专家创新团队和浙江省智能网格预报团队共同资助。
引用文本:
罗玲,娄小芬,傅良,钱浩,2019.ECMWF极端降水预报指数在华东台风暴雨中的应用研究[J].气象,45(10):1382-1391.
LUO Ling,LOU Xiaofen,FU Liang,QIAN Hao,2019.Application of Precipitation Extreme Forecast Index from ECMWF in Typhoon Rainstorm in East China[J].Meteor Mon,45(10):1382-1391.