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气象:2016,42(10):1245-1255
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面向流域的定量降水估测产品检验订正
(1.国家气象中心,北京 100081 中国气象局公共气象服务中心,北京 100081;2.中国气象局公共气象服务中心,北京 100081;3.中国气象科学研究院灾害天气国家重点实验室,北京 100081)
Verification and Correction of Quantitative Precipitation Estimation for River Basins
(1.National Meteorological Centre, Beijing 100081 Public Meteorological Service Centre, CMA, Beijing 100081;2.Public Meteorological Service Centre, CMA, Beijing 100081;3.State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather, Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing 100081)
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投稿时间:2015-06-06    修订日期:2016-08-17
中文摘要: 伴随着多源降水融合技术的发展,我国卫星、雷达反演、地面雨量观测计定量降水估测(QPE)产品已逐步趋于成熟,有效弥补了仅基于常规雨量站降水数据时空分辨率不足的缺陷,为江河流域面雨量产品开发和应用提供了契机;而对QPE产品进行适用性检验和订正是其在面向流域面雨量应用中的前提和基础。本研究利用国家气象中心及国家气象信息中心开发的QPE产品,结合水文站点实测降水数据,分别从产品误差的时空分布、流域的平均误差、不同量级降水的产品质量等角度,综合利用TS评分、命中率、漏估率、空估率以及ROC曲线等多种统计检验方法总体评估降水产品的适用性;采用递减平均法对每日的定量降水估测和实况降水的误差进行相关统计,在此基础上,对初始的QPE产品进行了优化订正,建立了基于QPE的流域面雨量产品;最后以沂河临沂站以上流域的水文要素预报为例,验证了订正产品对水文模式预报改进效果。上述研究表明,基于多源降水融合的QPE面雨量产品开发,在一定程度上可弥补目前国家级流域面雨量业务精细化不足,提升了国家级水文气象业务的技术能力。
Abstract:With the development of fusion technology of multi resource precipitation data, quantitative precipitation estimation (QPE) that combines satellite, radar and conventional meteorological data has got more mature. It has effectively made up the deficienties of low spatial and temporal resolution of conventional meteorological data and offered good opportunities for the application and development of the watershed area precipitation products. At the same time, the testing and the correction of suitability of QPE are the premise and basis for the application of watershed area precipitation. In the paper, based on hydrological precipitation data, statistic testing methods such as the threat score (TS), accuracy rate, false positives rate, false negatives rate, absolute bias, relative bias, root mean square error and the ROC curve are employed to evaluate the suitability of the QPE of National Meteorological Centre. The error spatial and temporal distribution, the series error in river basin and the quality of different scale precipitation are analyzed. Then, the decreasing average method is applied to optimize and correct the QPE which is based on the error statistics. The watershed area precipitation products are calculated based on the optimized QPE. Lastly, in the case of hydrological element forecast in Linyi Basin, the QPE area precipitation products are found good for the improvement of hydrological forecast. The studies indicate that developing QPE area precipitation products based on fusion technology of multi resource precipitation data can make up the deficiencies of refinement in state level forecasting operation of area precipitation and, enhance the technological capacity of state level hydrological meteorology.
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基金项目:国家自然科学基金项目(51509043)、国家科技重大专项(2013ZX07304 001 1)、中国气象局首批青年英才计划“中小河流洪水气象预警关键技术研究”(2014—2017)、国家气象中心预报员专项课题(Y201605),以及国家气象中心水文气象预报团队共同资助
引用文本:
许凤雯,王志,狄靖月,包红军,赵琳娜,2016.面向流域的定量降水估测产品检验订正[J].气象,42(10):1245-1255.
XU Fengwen,WANG Zhi,DI Jingyue,BAO Hongjun,ZHAO Linna,2016.Verification and Correction of Quantitative Precipitation Estimation for River Basins[J].Meteor Mon,42(10):1245-1255.