###
气象:2016,42(10):1237-1244
本文二维码信息
码上扫一扫!
长时间序列卫星遥感渤海海冰时空分布特征及与气温关系分析
(国家卫星气象中心,北京 100081)
Temporal Spatial Distribution of Bohai Sea Sea Ice in Long Time Series and Its Correlation with Air Temperature
(National Satellite Meteorological Centre, Beijing 100081)
摘要
图/表
参考文献
相似文献
本文已被:浏览 1138次   下载 916
投稿时间:2015-05-11    修订日期:2016-04-25
中文摘要: 利用气象卫星资料整理分析了1996—2011年冬季渤海海冰的时空分布变化:年际统计表明,单日海冰面积最大的3个年份分别是2011、2010和2001年,日最大冰面积均超过30000 km2;单日海冰面积最小的3个年份分别是1999、2002和2007年,日最大冰面积均不超过10000 km2。分区统计显示,海冰主要集中在辽东湾,其次是渤海湾,莱州湾最小;辽东湾海冰从东北向西南、从海滨到远海出现频率依次降低;渤海湾和莱州湾从海滨到远海,海冰的出现频率逐渐降低。在此基础上,分析了渤海逐日冰面积与营口站日均气温积温(≤-2℃)及气温的关系,结果表明渤海逐日冰面积与积温、气温之间均为负相关关系,其相关性在不同阶段表现不同:海冰发展期,渤海逐日冰面积与营口日均气温积温(≤-2℃)之间的相关性最为显著,相关系数为-0.90;海冰消融期,渤海逐日冰面积与营口3日(当日与前两日)平均气温的相关性最为显著,相关系数为-0.84;通过回归分析方法获得了渤海逐日冰面积与营口日均气温积温及3日平均气温的线性回归方程。最后,结合积温回归方程和3日平均气温回归方程,提出了分阶段的海冰面积预报方程,并利用该方程对2013和2014年度冬季渤海冰面积进行预报检验,检验结果证明上述方程具有一定的预报能力。
Abstract:Using meteorological satellite data, this paper analyzes the temporal spatial difference of Bohai Sea sea ice in winters from 1996 to 2011. The interannual statistics indicate that 2011, 2010 and 2001 are three years with the largest daily ice areas over 30000 km2 while 1999, 2002 and 2007 are three years with the smallest daily ice areas, which are less than 10000 km2. Sea ice mainly concentrates in Laizhou Bay, followed by Bohai Bay and Liaodong Bay. The frequency of sea ice decreases from northeast to southwest and from seashore to deep sea in Liaodong Bay, and from seashore to deep sea in Bohai Bay and Laizhou Bay. By analyzing the ice area data of Bohai sea and accumulated air temperature (≤-2℃) and air temperature at Yingkou Station, we found that the ice area in the Bohai Sea shows a negative correlation with the accumulated air temperature (≤-2℃) and air temperature at Yingkou Station. During the increasing period of sea ice, the ice area shows a significant correlation with the accumulated air temperature, the regression equation about them is derived and the correlation coefficient is -0.90; in the thawing period, the correlation between ice area and the 3 days (that very day and two days before) average temperature is fine, and the regression equation about them is derived the correlation coefficient is -0.84. Finally, the equation for the Bohai Sea ice area forecast is proposed by stages, and the equation is applied to sea ice forecasting test in the 2013/2014 winter. The test result proved the equation is good for the Bohai Sea ice area forecasting.
文章编号:     中图分类号:    文献标志码:
基金项目:公益性行业(气象)科研专项(GYHY201306049)资助
引用文本:
王萌,武胜利,郑伟,赵长海,刘诚,2016.长时间序列卫星遥感渤海海冰时空分布特征及与气温关系分析[J].气象,42(10):1237-1244.
WANG Meng,WU Shengli,ZHENG Wei,ZHAO Changhai,LIU Cheng,2016.Temporal Spatial Distribution of Bohai Sea Sea Ice in Long Time Series and Its Correlation with Air Temperature[J].Meteor Mon,42(10):1237-1244.