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气象:2016,42(5):532-539
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2014—2016年超强厄尔尼诺事件的气候影响
(1.国家气候中心,中国气象局气候研究开放实验室,北京100081;2.国家气候中心,中国气象局气候研究开放实验室,北京100081 南京信息工程大学气象灾害预报预警与评估协同创新中心,南京 210044)
Influences of the 2014-2016 Super El Ni〖AKn~D〗o Event on Climate
(1.Laboratory for Climate Studies of CMA, National Climate Centre, Beijing 100081;2.Laboratory for Climate Studies of CMA, National Climate Centre, Beijing 100081 Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters, 〓Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing 210044)
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投稿时间:2016-03-29    修订日期:2016-05-04
中文摘要: 2014—2016年,赤道中东太平洋发生了一次超强厄尔尼诺事件,此次事件于2015年11月达到峰值,12月开始衰减。其峰值强度超过了1951年以来另外两次超强厄尔尼诺事件(1982/1983年和1997/1998年)的强度,成为了1951年以来最强的事件。截至2016年4月,事件已持续20个月,也成为了1951年以来持续时间最长的厄尔尼诺事件。在这次事件的发展过程中,热带太平洋至东亚副热带地区的大气环流表现出了显著的响应特征:赤道中东太平洋对流活动加强,异常上升运动发展,而赤道西太平洋对流活动受抑制,异常下沉运动控制;菲律宾附近异常反气旋生成并发展加强,西太平洋副热带高压强度偏强、西伸脊点异常偏西,尤其2015年冬季副热带高压强度为1980年以来最强。与此同时,2015年秋、冬季,我国长江以南大部降水偏多,尤其冬季华南地区(广东、广西、海南三省区)平均降水量达历史第一,较常年偏多1.6倍以上。近期,超强厄尔尼诺正处于衰减阶段,但是考虑到热带印度洋暖海温的“接力”作用,厄尔尼诺事件对2016年春、夏季我国气候异常的影响可能仍将持续。
Abstract:A super El Ni〖AKn~D〗o event occurred over the equatorial central eastern Pacific during 2014-2016. It peaked in November 2015 with its strength larger than two other super El Ni〖AKn~D〗o events (1982/1983 and 1997/1998 events), ranking as the strongest El Ni〖AKn~D〗o event since 1951. By April 2016, it has lasted for 20 months, thus becoming the longest El Ni〖AKn~D〗o event since 1951. During the developing process of this El Ni〖AKn~D〗o, the atmospheric circulation from the tropical Pacific to East Asia has shown significant responses. The convection over the equatorial central eastern Pacific was more active than normal, and anomalously ascending motion. However, over the equatorial western Pacific, the convection was inhibited and anomalous subsidence prevailed. The anomalous low level Philippine Sea anticyclone persistently controlled northwestern Pacific and became gradually stronger with the development of El Ni〖AKn~D〗o. As a result, the western Pacific subtropical high (WPSH) has become stronger than normal, and its west boundary extended more westward. The WPSH in winter 2015 has been the strongest since 1980. Meanwhile, precipitation was above normal in the southern part of 〖JP2〗the Yangtze River Valley in China during autumn and winter of 2015, with the mean precipitation over South China (Guangdong, Guangxi and Hainan) in winter 2015 ranking as the first since 1951. Recently, this super El Ni〖AKn~D〗o event has been decaying. However, its further influences on the climate anomaly in China may still persist during the following spring and summer of 2016.
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基金项目:国家重点基础研究发展计划(973计划)(2013CB430203)、国家自然科学基金项目(41575090和41520104008)、中国气象局预报预测核心业务发展专项(CMAHX20160401)以及公益性行业(气象)科研专项(GYHY200906016)共同资助
引用文本:
袁媛,高辉,贾小龙,万江华,2016.2014—2016年超强厄尔尼诺事件的气候影响[J].气象,42(5):532-539.
YUAN Yuan,GAO Hui,JIA Xiaolong,WAN Jianghua,2016.Influences of the 2014-2016 Super El Ni〖AKn~D〗o Event on Climate[J].Meteor Mon,42(5):532-539.