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气象:2016,42(5):540-547
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2015/2016年超强厄尔尼诺事件气候监测及诊断分析
(国家气候中心,北京 100081)
Monitoring and Diagnosis of the 2015/2016 Super El Ni〖AKn~D〗o Event
(National Climate Centre, Beijing 100081)
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投稿时间:2016-04-12    修订日期:2016-05-07
中文摘要: 文章基于国家气候中心现行厄尔尼诺监测和诊断业务规范,分析了2015/2016年厄尔尼诺事件的现状及其演变过程,并将之与1982/1983年以及1997/1998年厄尔尼诺事件做对比。监测结果表明,2015/2016年厄尔尼诺事件是自1951年以来继1982/1983年和1997/1998年厄尔尼诺事件之后的第三次超强厄尔尼诺事件,并且在持续时间、峰值强度、累计海温距平和海温距平连续超过2.0℃的时间等指标上均强于前两次超强厄尔尼诺事件。赤道中西太平洋的多次西风爆发过程驱动次表层异常暖海温东传,使得厄尔尼诺事件发展。与前两次超强厄尔尼诺事件对比发现,2015/2016年厄尔尼诺事件盛期暖海温中心强度和范围较前两次事件偏小,南方涛动强度较前两次偏弱,西风爆发过程中西风异常强度也小于前两次事件。
Abstract:Based on the current standard of National Climate Centre, China Meteorological Administration, the recent status and evolution of the 2015/2016 El Ni〖AKn~D〗o event are introduced and compared to the 1982/1983 and 1997/1998 El Ni〖AKn~D〗o events. Monitoring results show that the 2015/2016 El Ni〖AKn~D〗o event is the third super El Ni〖AKn~D〗o event since 1951 after the 1982/1983 and 1997/1998 events, and it exceeded the former two super events based on the index of duration, peak intensity, accumulated SSTA and the months in which SSTA consecutively exceeds 2.0℃. The several westerly bursts over the equatorial central western Pacific drove the eastward propagation of the anomalous warm sub SST, resulting in the development of the El Ni〖AKn~D〗o event. The intensity of the warm SSTA center in the peak period of 2015/2016 event is weaker, and the range is smaller than the former two super El Ni〖AKn~D〗o events, so is the intensity of the anomalous westerly in the westerly bursts.
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基金项目:国家重点基础研究发展计划(973计划)(2012CB955901)资助
引用文本:
邵勰,周兵,2016.2015/2016年超强厄尔尼诺事件气候监测及诊断分析[J].气象,42(5):540-547.
SHAO Xie,ZHOU Bing,2016.Monitoring and Diagnosis of the 2015/2016 Super El Ni〖AKn~D〗o Event[J].Meteor Mon,42(5):540-547.