###
气象:2016,42(5):521-531
←前一篇   |   后一篇→
本文二维码信息
码上扫一扫!
国家气候中心新一代ENSO预测系统及其对2014/2016年超强厄尔尼诺事件的预测
(国家气候中心,中国气象局气候研究开放实验室,北京 100081)
The New Generation of ENSO Prediction System in Beijing Climate Centre and Its Predictions for the 2014/2016 Super El Ni〖AKn~D〗o Event
(Laboratory for Climate Studies of CMA, National Climate Centre, Beijing 100081)
摘要
图/表
参考文献
相似文献
本文已被:浏览 1879次   下载 1072
投稿时间:2016-04-06    修订日期:2016-05-09
中文摘要: 厄尔尼诺和南方涛动(ENSO)作为其年际变率支配模态,对我国季节气候预测有着非常重要的指示意义。在过去30年里,ENSO自身属性、类型和气候影响发生了显著改变,为我国气候预测和防灾减灾带来了前所未有的挑战。2012年以来,国家气候中心组织研发了新一代ENSO监测、分析和预测业务系统(SEMAP2.0),目的是切实提升ENSO监测预测业务能力。SEMAP2.0综合集成了国内外多项ENSO研究新成果,并自主研发了多项ENSO诊断预测新技术。该系统包括实时监测、动力学诊断-归因分析、两类ENSO物理统计预报模型、气候模式集合预报解释应用、以及相似 动力预报订正等五个子系统。20年独立样本检验显示,集合平均Ni〖AKn~D〗o3.4海温指数提前6个月预报的时间距平相关系数达到0.8。该系统已于2015年底正式业务运行,每月实时提供业务产品。在业务应用方面,该系统2014年春季给出了基本反映实际的夏秋季厄尔尼诺演变趋势预测,较为准确地预报出了2014/2015年冬季弱中部型厄尔尼诺状态和2015年春季以后厄尔尼诺的持续发展趋势以及向东部型的转换过程,准确定位出2014/2016事件峰值时间和强度并预计此次事件在2016年春末结束。
Abstract:El Ni〖AKn~D〗o South Oscillation (ENSO), as a dominant mode on the inter annual variability, has a big implication in short term climate prediction in China. In the past three decades, significant changes occurred in ENSO phenomenon such as its own properties, types and climate impacts, which have brought a big challenge for climate prediction and disaster prevention and reduction in China. Since 2012, Beijing Climate Center in China Meteorological Administration (BCC/CMA) has pushed forward the research and development for the new generation of ENSO monitoring, analysis and prediction system (SEMAP2.0) in order to markedly improve the operational capability of ENSO monitoring and prediction in BCC/CMA. The SEMAP2.0 integrates several latest results in international ENSO studies and develops many new techniques for ENSO monitoring and prediction further. This new system is made up of five sub systems including the real time monitoring, dynamical diagnosis and attribution analysis, physics based statistical prediction for the two type s of ENSO, interpretation and application of ensemble forecasts in climate model, and analogue dynamical correction prediction. The 20 yr independent validation shows a relatively high level prediction skill that the temporal anomaly correlation score reaches 0.8 in terms of ensemble mean Ni〖AKn~D〗o3.4 sea surface temperature anomaly index with 6 months lead. The SEMAP2.0 started running as an operational system in BCC/CMA at the end of 2015 and has issued a bunch of operational products on the website. During its development, this system has been applied to real time operational applications. It has given a basically reasonable indication for the El Ni〖AKn~D〗o fluctuation occurring in the 2014 summer autumn seasons, accurately predicting the weak central Pacific El Ni〖AKn~D〗o type in the 2014/2015 winter and its continual growth after the 2015 spring as well as the type transferring to the strong eastern Pacific El Ni〖AKn~D〗o type during the 2015 summer. Also, this system has exactly caught the peak intensity and time of the super El Ni〖AKn~D〗o event as initiating in September 2015, one season lead, and further predicted that this super event will terminate at the late spring in 2016.
文章编号:     中图分类号:    文献标志码:
基金项目:公益性行业(气象)科研专项(GYHY201506013)和国家自然科学基金项目(41405080)共同资助
引用文本:
任宏利,刘颖,左金清,陆波,田奔,金飞飞,万江华,2016.国家气候中心新一代ENSO预测系统及其对2014/2016年超强厄尔尼诺事件的预测[J].气象,42(5):521-531.
REN Hongli,LIU Ying,ZUO Jinqing,LU Bo,TIAN Ben,JIN Feifei,WAN Jianghua,2016.The New Generation of ENSO Prediction System in Beijing Climate Centre and Its Predictions for the 2014/2016 Super El Ni〖AKn~D〗o Event[J].Meteor Mon,42(5):521-531.