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气象:2016,42(3):330-338
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AMDAR温度观测的误差统计特征分析
(国家气象中心,北京 100081)
Statistical Characteristics Analysis for AMDAR Temperature Observation Error
(National Meteorological Centre, Beijing 100081)
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投稿时间:2015-07-17    修订日期:2016-01-05
中文摘要: 观测资料的误差结构特征是影响资料同化效果的重要因素之一,在GRAPES资料同化系统中使用的观测资料误差结构特征是借鉴国外的同化系统或参考文献,没有直接使用实际观测资料统计。因为同化系统的差异和观测系统的不断改进,观测资料误差结构特征也应随着改变。现在同化系统中的观测误差结构特征不能满足同化系统的精细化要求,比如飞机的观测误差特征没有按飞机标识、纬度带和飞行状态进行区分。为了提高AMDAR资料的应用效果,本文对AMDAR资料的误差特征进行统计分析。通过对比AMDAR资料和NECP再分析资料,分别对全球不同纬度带、不同飞行状态和不同飞行标识两者的温度差异进行统计。本文使用的AMDAR资料是从国家信息中心实时库获取的,资料时段为2013年5—7月。统计结果显示在北半球中纬度(20°~50°N)AMDAR资料最密集的区域,AMDAR资料的温度偏差最大,约-2~-1℃,标准差约1.2~1.6℃。温度的标准差在不同飞行状态随纬度而异,赤道地区(20°S~20°N)平飞状态最小,约0.8℃,北半球高纬度(50°~90°N)平飞状态最大,约1.5~2℃。通过分析AMDAR资料的误差特征,可以更有针对性地做好AMDAR资料质量控制及偏差订正,改进同化预报效果。
Abstract:Error structural characteristic of observation data is one of the most important factors that affect data assimilation. The error structural characteristics of observation data in GRAPES come from numerical weather prediction system abroad. In order to improve the application effect of aircraft meteorological data relay (AMDAR) data, statistical analysis of the temperature difference between AMDAR data and NCEP reanalysis data is done according to different latitude zones, flight states, and identifications. The AMDAR data is from real time database in National Meteorological Information Centre (NMIC), and the period of time for the data is May-July 2013. The statistical results show that there is a maximum temperature bias in the mid latitude (20°-50°N) of Northern Hemisphere, where the number of AMDAR data is at most. The temperature bias is about -2--1℃, and the standard deviation of temperature is about 1.2-1.6℃. The temperature standard deviation varies with latitude zones in different flight states. The minimum standard deviation of temperature appears in cruise phase in the equatorial region (20°S-50°N), being about 0.8℃. The maximum standard deviation of temperature appears in cruise phase in the high latitude (50°-90°N) of the Northern Hemisphere, and it is about 1.5-2℃. By analyzing the error character of AMDAR data, we can do better in quality control and bias correction, improving the effect of data assimilation and forecasting.
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基金项目:公益性行业(气象)科研专项(GYHY201406005)、GRAPES专项(GRAPES FZZX 2015 05)和国家气象中心青年基金(Q201510)共同资助
引用文本:
王瑞文,万晓敏,田伟红,王丹,2016.AMDAR温度观测的误差统计特征分析[J].气象,42(3):330-338.
WANG Ruiwen,WAN Xiaomin,TIAN Weihong,WANG Dan,2016.Statistical Characteristics Analysis for AMDAR Temperature Observation Error[J].Meteor Mon,42(3):330-338.