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气象:2016,42(3):339-346
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基于均一化资料的中国大陆极端温度的长期趋势
(1.兰州大学大气科学学院,兰州 730000;2.中国科学院大气物理研究所东亚气候环境重点实验室,北京 100029 ;3.94783部队61分队,长兴 313111)
Long Term Trends in Extreme Temperature over China Mainland Based on Homogenized Dataset
(1.College of Atmospheric Sciences, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 730000;2.Key Laboratory of Regional ClimateEnvironment Research for East Asia, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029;3.Unit 61, No.94783 of People’s Liberation Army (PLA), Zhejiang, Changxing 313111)
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投稿时间:2015-06-19    修订日期:2016-01-12
中文摘要: 近百年来,全球气候变暖。这与暖日和暖夜增加,冷日和冷夜减少相关联。文章研究结果进一步证实了这一发现。本文基于1960—2012年中国大陆542个台站均一化气温资料,通过将中国大陆划分为8个次区域,利用百分位定义法计算了极端温度指数序列,同时,运用时间趋势分析法,对中国大陆各区域极端温度和极端温度指数的时空分布及变化趋势特征进行了分析。结果表明:在全球变暖的背景下,从地理分布而言,中国大陆在过去53年除西南地区外,大部分地区最低和最高温度有显著的升高趋势,其中,东北温度升高最为明显;从季节而言,冬季极端温度升高最为明显,夏季升高最少;最低温度明显升高,最高温度也有所升高,但是最低温度的升高幅度更大。冷夜和冷日出现频率呈减少趋势,暖夜和暖日出现频率呈增加趋势,其中以冷夜指数变化最为突出,均呈现一种区域差异的现象。本文利用更新的资料验证了前人的工作,也进一步分区分析,结果可为更多地区评估以及进一步的相关研究提供参考。
Abstract:The world has become warmer over the past century, which is associated with the increase of hot days and warm nights, and the reduction of cool days and cold nights. Based on the homogenized daily temperature data from 542 Chinese stations during 1960-2012, this paper calculated the several extreme temperature indicators series, by dividing China into 8 sub regions, and using percentile method of defining extreme high and low temperature threshold. Meanwhile, using time trend analysis, we analyzed the spatio temporal distribution and varying tendency features of extreme temperatures and the indices in China. The results show that with the global warming, the increasing trends of the minimum and the maximum temperature are all statistically significant over most regions of China, except in Southwest China, during the last 53 years, of which temperature increases most in Northeast China. The increase of seasonal extreme temperature is the most in winter, but the least in summer. Minimum temperature is significantly increased, so is the maximum temperature, but the increasing magnitude of the minimum temperature is higher than that of the maximum counterpart. The frequency of cold days and cold nights show a decreasing trend, while the warm nights and warm days has increased. The change of cold night index is most prominent, presenting the phenomenon of regional differences. These results can provide some reference for regional assessment and further researches.
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基金项目:交通安全与健康出行气象保障服务专题-2015、南京信息工程大学气候变化与公共政策研究院开放课题(14QHA013)、中央高校基本业务费专项经费(LZUJBKY 2013 M03)和国家重点基础研究发展计划(973计划)(2012CB955303)共同资助
引用文本:
肖冰霜,马玉霞,赵天保,颜书豪,2016.基于均一化资料的中国大陆极端温度的长期趋势[J].气象,42(3):339-346.
XIAO Bingshuang,MA Yuxia,ZHAO Tianbao,YAN Shuhao,2016.Long Term Trends in Extreme Temperature over China Mainland Based on Homogenized Dataset[J].Meteor Mon,42(3):339-346.