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投稿时间:2014-12-31 修订日期:2015-07-07
投稿时间:2014-12-31 修订日期:2015-07-07
中文摘要: 目前我国CINRAD WSR 98D SA/SB及部分C波段多普勒雷达内置的算法参数是美国WSR 88D的缺省算法参数,我国业务人员发现由冰雹探测算法得到的冰雹指数产品在实际业务应用中存在过高预报冰雹尤其是强雹发生概率及冰雹尺寸偏大问题。针对此认识,本文首先从算法演变过程说明目前WSR 98D算法中强雹发生概率及冰雹尺寸的缺省参数来自于美国1992年俄克拉荷马和弗罗里达的10 个强雹个例资料集。基于此强雹数据集得到的算法参数本身就高估了强雹概率及冰雹尺寸,即过高预报强雹概率是由算法本身局限性所造成;在不改变当前冰雹探测算法参数设置的情况下,结合前期的冰雹算法,业务上可以使用其他一些环境参数及多普勒雷达探测特征作为强雹预报的辅助判据,如VIL、VIL密度、TBSS等;根据强雹形成物理过程,提出在不失一般性的假设下,-20℃层CAPPI产品上55 dBz范围超过100 km2可以作为快速判断单体降强雹的补充阈值使用。
中文关键词: 冰雹探测算法, 雷达探测特征, CAPPI产品
Abstract:CINRAD WSR 98D SA / SB and part of C band Doppler algorithm default parameters are same as WSR 88D in U.S. The hail index products based on hail detection algorithm usually overestimate probability of hail, severe hail, and hail size in actual operational application. This paper first illustrates that probability of severe hail and hail size in WSR 98D algorithm default parameter is from the dataset of 10 severe hail cases during 1992 in Oklahoma and Florida of U.S. The algorithm parameters based on this data overestimate probability of severe hail and hail size, i.e. over forecasting hail occurrence is caused by limitation of the algorithm itself. Without changing the set of hail detection algorithm parameters, combined with early hail algorithm, some environmental parameters and Doppler radar detection characteristics can be used as auxiliary criterion, such as VIL, VIL density, TBSS, etc. According to the physical process of severe hail formation, and under the assumption without losing generality we propose that the 55 dBz range exceeding 100 m2 on the -20℃ layer CAPPI products can be used as supplemental threshold for judging quickly the formation of severe hails.
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基金项目:国家自然科学基金项目(41475042、41175043)和江苏省气象科学研究所北极阁基金(BJG201305)共同资助
作者 | 单位 |
周小刚 | 中国气象局气象干部培训学院,北京 100081 |
费海燕 | 中国气象局气象干部培训学院,北京 100081 |
王秀明 | 中国气象局气象干部培训学院,北京 100081 |
王晨曦 | 中国气象局气象干部培训学院,北京 100081 |
引用文本:
周小刚,费海燕,王秀明,王晨曦,2015.多普勒雷达探测冰雹的算法发展与业务应用讨论[J].气象,41(11):1390-1397.
ZHOU Xiaogang,FEI Haiyan,WANG Xiuming,WANG Chenxi,2015.Doppler Radar Hail Detection Algorithm Development and Its Operational Application Discussion[J].Meteor Mon,41(11):1390-1397.
周小刚,费海燕,王秀明,王晨曦,2015.多普勒雷达探测冰雹的算法发展与业务应用讨论[J].气象,41(11):1390-1397.
ZHOU Xiaogang,FEI Haiyan,WANG Xiuming,WANG Chenxi,2015.Doppler Radar Hail Detection Algorithm Development and Its Operational Application Discussion[J].Meteor Mon,41(11):1390-1397.