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气象:2015,41(11):1398-1407
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IVSA模型在双来源自动站小时降水数据实时拼接中的应用
(国家气象信息中心,北京 100081)
Application of Inter Verification Sequence Alignment Model to Two Data Source Splicing of AWS Hourly Precipitation
(National Meteorological Information Centre, Beijing 100081)
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投稿时间:2014-10-08    修订日期:2015-05-05
中文摘要: 利用2012年5月1日至7月31日全国自动气象站两种来源实时上传资料中的“非缺测不一致”小时降水数据,详查了问题的产生原因,为在实时拼接过程中高效判断数据正确性,提出较小尺度时间序列求证比对模型(IVSA):当同一时间同一台站的两种来源小时降水值发生不一致时,首先在较小时间尺度(分钟级)序列上使用内部一致性检查方法分别求证小时降水的正确性;当各自在较小时间尺度序列均无法证伪时,将单元出错概率引入两分钟降水序列的比对过程,并据此竞优遴选得出较为可靠的小时降水数据。指出:(1)产生非缺测不一致问题的原因主要有生成报文时观测数据不全、报文处理环节不一致、台站信息不正确三类。(2)使用2012年5月1360组实例形成IVSA模型参数后,模型在2012年6—7月的4017组非缺测不一致数据中取得了99.65%的判断准确率。通过IVSA模型,非缺测不一致的小时降水数据取舍问题可在分钟降水序列比对中找出答案。
Abstract:Non default inconsistent hourly precipitation data are an abnormal status in automatic weather station (AWS) observation, which can be often met as hourly precipitation data are transmitted and recorded in 2 sources. Three groups of related instances are listed first, and the direct reasons that deeply hidden are found out manually. To solve this problem, Inter Verification Sequence Alignment (IVSA) model in smaller time scale is raised in this article. When non default inconsistent data from same station appears at the same time, verification with smaller time scale data (minute precipitation) is made respectively. If both data cannot be proved wrong with inner verification step, then unit error possibility is added into sequence alignment method. Correlation credibility is calculated and more reliable data can be selected accordingly. After then, monthly data in May 2012 (1360 pairs of instances) are used to train the parameters, and the data (4017 pairs of instances) from 1 June to 31 July 2012 are input to verify the efficiency of applying IVSA in real time data environment, getting an accuracy of 99.65%. It is concluded that IVSA model can eliminate non default inconsistence in hourly precipitation data under running rules.
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基金项目:国家气象信息中心青年科技基金资助项目(NMICQJ201109)和中国气象局气象关键技术集成与应用重点项目(CMAGJ2013Z01)共同资助
引用文本:
刘一鸣,2015.IVSA模型在双来源自动站小时降水数据实时拼接中的应用[J].气象,41(11):1398-1407.
LIU Yiming,2015.Application of Inter Verification Sequence Alignment Model to Two Data Source Splicing of AWS Hourly Precipitation[J].Meteor Mon,41(11):1398-1407.