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气象:2014,40(5):589-597
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影响浙江地区降水估测几个因素的分析
(1.成都信息工程学院,成都 610225;2.中国气象科学研究院灾害天气国家重点实验室,北京 100081)
Analysis of Several Factors Affecting Precipitation Estimate in Zhejiang
(1.Chengdu University of Information Technology, Chengdu 610225;2.State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather, Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing 100081)
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投稿时间:2013-03-23    修订日期:2013-11-19
中文摘要: 如何从新一代天气雷达三维拼图数据中提取用于降水估测的回波强度是提高雷达降水估测的关键,为了分析利用三维拼图数据提取出的混合扫描回波强度的质量以及对降水估测的影响,文章利用浙江省雷达和全国自动站数据,通过研究回波强度与地面雨量的关系,分析了影响基于雷达三维拼图的降水估测精度的几个要素。通过累积整个过程雷达回波强度估测的雨量和自动站采集雨量得到浙江及周边地区的比率分布,找到了两者关系的异常区:区域性回波强度比较高的区域;区域性回波强度的低估区;区域性回波强度随地形变化的区域;区域性回波强度估测较为合理的区域;随纬度增加回波强度逐渐高估的区域。通过分析发现:0℃层亮带、残余的地物回波、异常的回波强度垂直廓线、自动站的数据质量等是造成回波强度与地面雨量关系异常的原因。最后,利用部分自动站对雷达估测的降水进行订正,结果表明:自动站订正能一定程度缓解上述区域高估或低估程度。
Abstract:How to extract the echo intensity used for quantitative precipitation estimation (QPE) from the 3 D mosaic data of China New Generation Weather Radar (CINRAD) is the key to improve the radar rainfall estimation. With the purpose of analyzing hybrid echo intensity quality extracted from the 3 D mosaic data and the influence on the precipitation estimation, by using the radar data of Zhejiang Province and nationwide rainfall station data, this paper studies the relationship between the echo intensity and the suface precipitation amount and analyzes several factors that affect the accuracy of precipitation estimation. According to the ratio distribution, which is got by the whole weather process accumulation of precipitation estimation from the radar echo intensity and the collected rainfall from the automatic rainfall stations in Zhejiang Province and the surrounding areas, several abnormal regions are found including the region where regional echo intensity is relatively high, the region where regional echo intensity is underestimated, the region where regional echo intensity varies with topography, the region where regional echo intensity is estimated to be relatively reasonable and the region where regional echo intensity is gradually overestimated with increasing latitude. The analysis results show that the 0℃ bright band, the residual ground echo, the abnormal radar echo intensity vertical profile, the quality of the rainfall station data, etc. are causes for the abnormal relationship between echo intensity and ground precipitation amount. Finally, by using parts of the rainfall station data, the precipitation estimation from the radar is corrected and the results show that the rainfall station correction can alleviate the degree of the regional overestimation or underestimation to some extent.
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基金项目:国家科技支撑计划(2012BAC22B00)和国家自然科学基金项目(41175038)共同资助
引用文本:
杨杰,刘黎平,勾亚彬,2014.影响浙江地区降水估测几个因素的分析[J].气象,40(5):589-597.
YANG Jie,LIU Liping,GOU Yabin,2014.Analysis of Several Factors Affecting Precipitation Estimate in Zhejiang[J].Meteor Mon,40(5):589-597.