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气象:2014,40(5):598-604
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2012年冬季北京三种高影响天气的关联与成因分析
(北京市气象台,北京 100089)
Analyses on Relationship and Causes for the Three High Influence Weather Events in Beijing in Winter 2012
(Beijing Meteorological Observatory, Beijing 100089)
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投稿时间:2013-03-12    修订日期:2013-10-11
中文摘要: 2012年冬季,北京地区经历了12月持续低温寒冷、2013年1月持续雾霾和1月31日突发冻雨三种高影响天气。这三种高影响天气给北京这座特大型城市带来了许多不利影响,一度成为全社会关注的焦点。文章利用常规气象观测资料和大气成分观测资料,分析了这三种高影响天气的成因以及它们之间的内在联系,结果表明:(1)冷空气活动频繁并且强度偏强是持续低温的主要原因,并且此次持续低温寒冷是导致后期雾霾频发和冻雨的重要原因。(2)从大气稳定度角度对雾霾的发生所作的气象学分析,发现:水平稳定度上,冷暖平流表现出的水平稳定度对应了污染物浓度的高低,暖平流对应了污染物浓度增加,并在暖平流转为冷平流时堆积到最大值,而冷平流对应了污染物浓度的降低,冷平流转为暖平流时浓度最低;垂直稳定度上,前期低温寒冷导致的边界层气温偏冷和空中干暖平流共同造成的边界层顶强逆温极强地抑制了污染物垂直方向的扩散,对于雾霾堆积起了很大作用。(3)从大气温湿层结角度对冻雨的发生做了分析,发现:低空偏冷和空中回暖造成了1月31日08时空中逆温的层结结构,而温湿层结正好使饱和层的温度在-10~0℃之间,并且有足够厚的-4~0℃的饱和层使得过冷水含量很高,是冻雨发生的充分条件。上述三种天气虽然是极端天气,但关注前期低温寒冷导致的低空偏冷和空中快速回暖都能使雾霾和冻雨具有一定的预报性。而一个极端天气的出现,其可能引发的其他极端天气事件也要引起关注。
Abstract:During the winter 2012, Beijing suffered 3 high influence weather events: lasting cold weather in December, continuous fog and haze in January 2013 and freezing rain on 31 January 2013. The three events brought many adverse effects to Beijing, and have become the focus of the whole society. Using conventional observation data and the atmospheric component data, the causes for the three extreme events are studied, and the intrinsic relations among them are analyzed. The results show that: (1) Frequent cold air activities and intensity are the main cause for the continuous low temperature event, which leads to continuous fog, haze and freezing rain. (2) From the atmospheric stability analysis, we find that the horizontal stability of cold and warm advection is corresponding to the level of pollutant concentration; and, vertically, the low temperature in boundary layer and dry warm advection to the top of the boundary layer play an important role for the accumulation of haze. (3) Low temperature in low level and warm air in the sky contribute to a freezing rain stratification. Therefore, one extreme weather event that may lead to other extreme weather events should be concerned about.
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基金项目:公益性行业(气象)科研专项(GYHY201006010)、北京市气象局气象科技研发专项(2012BMBKYZX10)和北京市气象局精细化预报创新团队(CX201103)共同资助
引用文本:
张琳娜,郭锐,2014.2012年冬季北京三种高影响天气的关联与成因分析[J].气象,40(5):598-604.
ZHANG Linna,GUO Rui,2014.Analyses on Relationship and Causes for the Three High Influence Weather Events in Beijing in Winter 2012[J].Meteor Mon,40(5):598-604.