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投稿时间：2012-10-20 修订日期：2013-05-09
投稿时间：2012-10-20 修订日期：2013-05-09
中文摘要: 建立福建汛期降水量气候场的主分量逐步回归预测模型，通过预测福建汛期降水量气候场的主分量来实现对福建汛期降水量场的预测。选取北半球500 hPa高度场、太平洋海温场、北半球海平面气压场等含不同区域不同季节的诸多因子场的前若干主分量因子作为预测因子。计算分析了福建汛期降水场的主分量分布特征和分型特点。利用相关筛选和双重检验逐步回归方法，建立福建汛期降水场与多个因子场的关系，建立主分量的预测方程。通过对2012年福建汛期降水的预报，发现该模型对福建汛期降水的趋势和分布有较好的预测能力。
中文关键词: 气候统计预测，主分量分析，双重检验逐步回归，福建汛期降水
Abstract:A principal component stepwise regression prediction model of climatic field for the flood period rainfall in Fujian Province is established. The model predicts the precipitation of flood period in Fujian through predicting the principal component of the climatic field of that period. This study takes the 500 hPa height and the sea surface temperature of Pacific Ocean and the sea level pressure in the Northern Hemisphere and many principal component factors in various seasons and regions as predictors, calculating and analyzing the distribution and types of the principal components of the flood period rainfall in Fujian. Through correlation screening and double test stepwise regression, a prediction equation is developed for the principal component of the Fujian flood period rainfall. By applying this model to predicting the flood period precipitation in Fujian in 2012, it is found that the model is capable to predict the precipitation and its distribution in the flood period in Fujian.
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基金项目:公益性行业(气象)科研专项（GYHY20110133 02）和福建省气象局开放式基金（2012K4）共同资助
| 作者 | 单位 |
| 陈德花 | 厦门市气象台，厦门 361012 |
| 陈创买 | 中山大学大气科学系，广州 510275 |
| 周学鸣 | 厦门市气象台，厦门 361012 |
| 孙琼博 | 厦门市气象台，厦门 361012 |
| 韦晋 | 厦门市气象台，厦门 361012 |
引用文本：
陈德花,陈创买,周学鸣,孙琼博,韦晋,2013.福建汛期降水主分量逐步回归预测模型研究[J].气象,39(9):1190-1196.
CHEN Dehua,CHEN Chuangmai,ZHOU Xueming,SUN Qiongbo,WEI Jin,2013.PC Stepwise Regression Forecasting Model of Climatic Field of Fujian Flood Period Rainfall[J].Meteor Mon,39(9):1190-1196.
陈德花,陈创买,周学鸣,孙琼博,韦晋,2013.福建汛期降水主分量逐步回归预测模型研究[J].气象,39(9):1190-1196.
CHEN Dehua,CHEN Chuangmai,ZHOU Xueming,SUN Qiongbo,WEI Jin,2013.PC Stepwise Regression Forecasting Model of Climatic Field of Fujian Flood Period Rainfall[J].Meteor Mon,39(9):1190-1196.