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气象:2011,37(8):1018-1025
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曹妃甸工业区最大风速资料重建及检验
(1.河北省气象与生态环境重点实验室,石家庄 050021;2.河北省气候中心,石家庄 050021;3.曹妃甸工业区气象局,唐山 063210)
Rebuilding and Test of Maximum Wind Speed Series in Caofeidian Industrial Zone
(1.Hebei Key Laboratory for Meteorology and EcoEnvironment, Shijiazhuang 050021;2.Hebei Climate Center, Shijiazhuang 050021;3.Meteorological Office of Caofeidian Industrial Zone, Tangshan 063210)
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投稿时间:2010-10-12    修订日期:2011-03-01
中文摘要: 将曹妃甸工业区2007—2008年自动气象站的最大风资料和唐海、乐亭、滦南气象站1972—2008年最大风资料进行u,v分量分解,分别建立最大风u、v分量的回归模型,然后利用唐海、乐亭、滦南气象站1972—2006年最大风资料,对曹妃甸1972—2006年最大风资料进行重建。对曹妃甸的实测资料和重建资料分别与唐海同时段实测资料进行对比分析,分析结果表明:唐海与曹妃甸之间最大风速的相关关系是比较稳定的;风向存在一些差异,风速较小时,两站风向偏差较大,风速较大时,两站风向偏差较小。曹妃甸与唐海实测资料风向在同一方位的次数,春季占28.3%,夏季占31.5%,秋季占24.7%,冬季占33.1%;曹妃甸重建资料与唐海实测资料的风向在同一方位的次数,春季占46%,夏季占29.4%,秋季占42.7%,冬季占54%。为了考察重建资料的合理性,在不同月份选取120个大风个例,分析重建资料与天气系统的对应关系,120个个例中,有5个无明显的天气系统配合,其他均有天气系统配合。重建后的最大风速具有明显的分布特征,经检验,曹妃甸日最大风速较好地服从Gamma分布。该资料序列可以用于大风灾害的分析与评估。
Abstract:The maximum wind velocity of automatic weather station (AWS) in Caofeidian Industrial Zone from 2007 to 2008 and the maximum wind velocity of meteorological stations at Tanghai, Laoting and Luannan from 1972 to 2008 were resolved into u and v components, and the regression models of u and v components were established respectively. Using the maximum wind speed data in Tanghai, Laoting and Luannan from 1972 to 2006, the data series of maximum wind speed in Caofeidian Industrial Zone during 1972-2006 were rebuilt. The observing and rebuilding data in Caofeidian were compared with its observing data in Tanghai, and the results show that the correlation coefficient of the maximum wind speed between Tanghai and Caofeidian is quite steady and there are some differences in wind direction between the two stations. When the wind speed is slower, the difference of wind direction between the two stations is larger. When the wind speed is larger, the difference of wind direction is smaller. The observed data of Caofeidian and Tanghai show that the times of same bearing are 28.3 percent in spring, 31.5 percent in summer, 24.7 percent in autumn, and 33.1 percent in winter. The rebuilding data of Caofeidian and the observed data in Tanghai show that the times of same bearing are 46 percent in spring, 29.4 percent in summer, 42.7 percent in autumn, and 54 percent in winter. In order to investigate the reality of the rebuilding data, we take 120 cases of high wind in different months as examples and analyze the relationship between rebuilding data and weather system. In the 120 cases, 114 cases meet obvious weather systems and 5 cases do not. The probability distribution of rebuilding maximum wind speed is obvious. Through hypothesis test, the daily maximum wind speed in Caofeidian follows a Gamma distribution. The series of maximum wind speed in Caofeidian can be used for the analysis and evaluation of wind disasters.
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基金项目:河北省气象局科研开发项目(09KY06)资助
引用文本:
顾光芹,田国强,李元华,智利辉,2011.曹妃甸工业区最大风速资料重建及检验[J].气象,37(8):1018-1025.
GU Guangqin,TIAN Guoqiang,LI Yuanhua,ZHI Lihui,2011.Rebuilding and Test of Maximum Wind Speed Series in Caofeidian Industrial Zone[J].Meteor Mon,37(8):1018-1025.