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投稿时间：2009-08-03 修订日期：2009-11-27
投稿时间：2009-08-03 修订日期：2009-11-27
中文摘要: 结合早稻生理特性和前人研究成果，分别构建了早稻温度、降水及日照适宜度模型，在此基础上，为反映多因子对早稻产量的协同效应，建立了早稻气候适宜度模型。根据不同时段的早稻气候适宜度，利用加权法，构建了早稻气候适宜指数。基于气候适宜指数与早稻产量的关系，建立了早稻气候适宜指标。并利用历年不同时段的气候适宜指数和早稻产量建立了早稻产量动态预报模型。结果表明，模型回代检验和预报检验的丰歉趋势正确率、实际预报准确率均较高，能够满足业务服务的需要。
Abstract:On the basis of physiological characteristics of early rice and the research results of predecessors, the suitability models about temperature, precipitation and sunshine of early rice are constructed. In order to express synergetic effect of meteorological factors and yield, climatic suitability model of early rice is established. According to different periods of climate suitability of early rice, the climatic suitability index of early rice is constructed by using weighted method. Based on the relation between climatic suitability index and early rice yield, a climatic suitability indicator is set up. And dynamical prediction models of early rice are created by using climatic suitability index at different stages and early rice yield. The results indicate that the method has high prediction accuracy of the bumper or poor harvest trend and the actual yield on both model test and forecasting test and can satisfy the needs of operational services.
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基金项目:中国气象局业务建设项目“粮食（水稻）安全气象保障业务系统建设”资助
引用文本：
易雪,王建林,宋迎波,2010.气候适宜指数在早稻产量动态预报上的应用[J].气象,36(6):85-89.
YI Xue,WANG Jianlin,SONG Yingbo,2010.Application of Climatic Suitability Index to Dynamical Prediction of Early Rice Yield[J].Meteor Mon,36(6):85-89.
易雪,王建林,宋迎波,2010.气候适宜指数在早稻产量动态预报上的应用[J].气象,36(6):85-89.
YI Xue,WANG Jianlin,SONG Yingbo,2010.Application of Climatic Suitability Index to Dynamical Prediction of Early Rice Yield[J].Meteor Mon,36(6):85-89.