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气象:2010,36(2):81-86
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中国降水型泥石流研究现状
(国家气象中心, 北京 100081)
Review of the Study of Rainfall Triggered Debris Flows
(National Meteorological Center, Beijing 100081)
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投稿时间:2009-04-14    修订日期:2009-07-01
中文摘要: 在综合调研泥石流研究现状基础上,总结了降水型泥石流研究进展。从降水资料的使用、泥石流发生区域雨量的估算、分析降水与泥石流关系的模型、环境背景因子的考虑等四个方面分别进行了论述。目前加密雨量观测资料、卫星雷达资料的应用,提高了泥石流灾害所在小流域实况降水估算精度。由简单地考虑临界雨量发展到考虑前期间接有效雨量、前期直接有效雨量、激发雨强和历时,同时考虑降水类型对泥石流的影响。目前降水和泥石流的关系模型发展为确定性模型和概率性模型。环境因子的考虑向两个方向发展:一种倾向是针对环境背景数据开展更加精细的区划,针对每个区域单元所处的环境背景情况建立降水与泥石流关系模型;另一种发展趋势是利用信息量等模型将环境因子作为降水与泥石流关系模型中的变量。
Abstract:The research status of debris flow at home and abroad is reviewed. On this basis, the research advance of relationship among the debris flow, effective antecedent precipitation and eco environment factors is briefly summarized. It is discussed from four aspects, i.e. the ways of the use of precipitation, the estimation of precipitation, the analysis model of relation between precipitation and debris, and the eco environment factor. The applying of intense rain gauge, radar and satellite gauge made the rainfall estimating of debris flow position more precise. The study is developed from the analysis about the impact of the critical rainfall on debris flow to effective antecedent rainfall, rain rate triggered debris flow and the type of precipitation on debris flow. At present, there are deterministic model and probability model which analyze the relationship between the rainfall and the debris flow occurrence. The study of the applying of eco environment factors developed forward to two directions: one is that the debris flow model is developed in elementary area on the basis of finer definition of geological hazardous region. The other is that the eco environmental factor is used as one of the variables in the model. Besides, more analyses are needed to solve the problem found in the present debris flow study.
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基金项目:国家自然科学基金项目40775036,2007年公益性行业(气象)科研专项“东南地区强降水诱发地质灾害预警报技术研究”(GYHY(QX)2007 6 37),中国气象局“十一五气象监测与灾害预警工程”项目和国家气象中心水文地质灾害气象科研团队
引用文本:
张国平,许凤雯,赵琳娜,2010.中国降水型泥石流研究现状[J].气象,36(2):81-86.
ZHANG Guoping,XU Fengwen,ZHAO Linna,2010.Review of the Study of Rainfall Triggered Debris Flows[J].Meteor Mon,36(2):81-86.