Abstract:Moving average is applied to simulate the rice yield (kg·hm-2) of Panjin region, Liaoning in the past three decades (1977-2006). On this basis, the meteo rological yield in this period is estimated. A disaster year is defined as one w ith a rice yield reduction rate higher than 5%. Then the risks of rice yield los s in Panjin caused by natural disasters are comprehensively analyzed from aspect s of the yield reduction probability, the coefficient of variation, and etc. The correlation between rice yield and meteorological factors is also analyzed to f ind out the key factors and disasters that affect rice yield. Results show that the fluctuation of rice yield in Panjin decreases with the advancement in agricu ltural production. Panshan county has a higher risk of rice yield loss than the average level of the whole city. Heat condition is the main reason for fluctution of rice yield in Panjin, because data analysis shows significant correlatio n betwee n the yield of rice and the accumulated temperature of days with mean temperatur e ≥10℃ from May to October, the monthly mean temperature of May and June, and the mean maximum temperature of September. The major agricultural meteorological disaster in May, June and September in Panjin is low temperature. This is in go od agreement with the actual observation.