本文已被:浏览 691次 下载 1852次
投稿时间:2007-12-27 修订日期:2008-03-18
投稿时间:2007-12-27 修订日期:2008-03-18
中文摘要: 应用滑动平均模拟方法,计算了盘锦地区1977—2006年30年水稻趋势单产,并据此求算出气
象产量。以减产率>5.0%界定灾年,分别从不同气象灾害损失等级出现的概率、变异系数
等角度综合分析了盘锦地区水稻生产的灾损风险。并通过计算水稻产量与各气象因子的相关
关系,寻找影响水稻产量的主要气象因子和气象灾害。结果显示:盘锦地区水稻产量波动随
着农业生产水平的提高而减小,盘山县的灾损风险大于全市水平;热量条件的丰欠是造成盘
锦地区产量波动的主要原因,其中5—10月≥10℃的积温,5、6月份的平均气温及
Abstract:Moving average is applied to simulate the rice yield (kg·hm-2) of Panjin
region, Liaoning in the past three decades (1977-2006). On this basis, the meteo
rological yield in this period is estimated. A disaster year is defined as one w
ith a rice yield reduction rate higher than 5%. Then the risks of rice yield los
s in Panjin caused by natural disasters are comprehensively analyzed from aspect
s of the yield reduction probability, the coefficient of variation, and etc. The
correlation between rice yield and meteorological factors is also analyzed to f
ind out the key factors and disasters that affect rice yield. Results show that
the fluctuation of rice yield in Panjin decreases with the advancement in agricu
ltural production. Panshan county has a higher risk of rice yield loss than the
average level of the whole city. Heat condition is the main reason for fluctution of rice yield in Panjin, because data analysis shows significant correlatio
n betwee
n the yield of rice and the accumulated temperature of days with mean temperatur
e ≥10℃ from May to October, the monthly mean temperature of May and June, and
the mean maximum temperature of September. The major agricultural meteorological
disaster in May, June and September in Panjin is low temperature. This is in go
od agreement with the actual observation.
文章编号: 中图分类号: 文献标志码:
基金项目:
引用文本:
江和文,李春,曹士民,杨文艳,2008.盘锦水稻产量灾损风险及气象影响因子分析[J].气象,34(5):38-43.
Jiang Hewen,Li Chun,Cao Shimin,Yang Wenyan,2008.Analysis of Risks of Rice Yield Loss Caused by Natural Disasters and Meteorological Factors Affecting Rice Production in Panjin, Liaoning[J].Meteor Mon,34(5):38-43.
江和文,李春,曹士民,杨文艳,2008.盘锦水稻产量灾损风险及气象影响因子分析[J].气象,34(5):38-43.
Jiang Hewen,Li Chun,Cao Shimin,Yang Wenyan,2008.Analysis of Risks of Rice Yield Loss Caused by Natural Disasters and Meteorological Factors Affecting Rice Production in Panjin, Liaoning[J].Meteor Mon,34(5):38-43.