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投稿时间：2007-12-20 修订日期：2008-01-28
投稿时间：2007-12-20 修订日期：2008-01-28
中文摘要: 为了建立电力因子与气象要素的关系，利用2005—2007年武汉市电网日电量、日最大负荷、日最小负荷及相应的气温资料，分析气温对各电力指标的影响，建立了各电力指标与气温的非线性统计模型，并与线性模型进行比较。结果表明，非线性模型比线性模型能更好地反映电力指标与气温的关系，日最大负荷、日电量、日最小负荷最不敏感的平均温度临界点分别是15～16℃、14～15℃、13～14℃，低于该温度时气温下降或高于该温度时气温上升，电力指标均呈非线性增加,与最不敏感的平均气温偏离越大，电力指标增加越快。
Abstract:In order to establish the relationship between the electricity indexes and air temperature, the influence of air temperature on electricity indexes is analyzed and the non linear statistic model is established by using the data of daily demand for electricity, daily maximum load, daily minimum load and the corresponding air temperature data. Compared with the linear model, the non linear model can better show the relationship between the electricity indexes and the air temperature. The daily maximum load, the daily demand for electricity and the daily minimum load are most in
sensitive to the critical average air temperatures 15～16℃,14～15℃ and 13～14℃ respectively. When the air temperature is higher and lower than the critical temperature, the electricity indexes non linearly increase, and the larger the deviation to the critical temperature, the quicker the increase in the electrical load.
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基金项目:中国气象局2007年建设项目“高温热浪监测预警业务系统”资助
引用文本：
李兰,陈正洪,洪国平,2008.武汉市周年逐日电力指标对气温的非线性响应[J].气象,34(5):26-30.
Li Lan,Chen Zhenghong,Hong Guoping,2008.Non linear Response of Daily Electricity Indexes to Air Temperature in Wuhan[J].Meteor Mon,34(5):26-30.
李兰,陈正洪,洪国平,2008.武汉市周年逐日电力指标对气温的非线性响应[J].气象,34(5):26-30.
Li Lan,Chen Zhenghong,Hong Guoping,2008.Non linear Response of Daily Electricity Indexes to Air Temperature in Wuhan[J].Meteor Mon,34(5):26-30.