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气象:2007,33(11):107-111
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基于天气分型的夏季逐时用电负荷预报
(1.山东省淄博市气象局,255048;2.南京大学大气科学系)
Hourly Electric Load Forecast Based on Different Weather Type in Summer
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投稿时间:2007-07-16    修订日期:2007-09-12
中文摘要: 用2004年和2005年6—8月用电负荷资料和气象资料,分月建立了日平均气象负荷预报 方程。讨论了用气象负荷的日变化量来代替总用电负荷的日变化量进而预报逐日总负荷的可 行性。分5种天气类型统计了各天气类型下逐时负荷与日平均负荷的比率,日平均用电负荷 预报值与该天气类型的逐时比率相乘得到逐时用电负荷的预报值。经2006年试用,日平均用 电负荷预报的平均相对误差为2.0%,逐时用电负荷预报的平均相对误差为2.9%,对日平均用 电负荷起伏较大的变化过程做出了准确预报。
Abstract:Monthly forecast equations of daily average meteorology electric loads are obtained by using the electric loads and weather data from June to August i n 2004 and 2005. The feasibility that the daily variation of total loads is repl aced by daily variation of meteorology loads to forecast daily total loads is st udied. The weather types are divided into five kinds and the ratio of the hourly loads to the daily average loads is calculated for each kind. The hourly electr ic loads equal to the product of daily total loads multiplied by hourly ratio in the corresponding weather type. Testing forecast is made during 2006, the resu lts show that average relative errors of daily and hourly average electric load forecasts are 2.0% and 2.9%, respectively. The variation of daily electric load s with large fluctuation is well predicted.
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臧传花,赵敏芬,卢兆民,2007.基于天气分型的夏季逐时用电负荷预报[J].气象,33(11):107-111.
Zang Chuanhua,Zhao Minfen,Lu Zhaomin,2007.Hourly Electric Load Forecast Based on Different Weather Type in Summer[J].Meteor Mon,33(11):107-111.