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气象:2007,33(11):112-117
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宁波市突发性地质灾害气象预报预警方法
(1.浙江省宁波市气象局, 315012;2.浙江省宁波市国土资源局)
Early Warning and Prediction of Abrupt Geological Hazards Based on Weather Forecast in Ningbo
(1.Ningbo Meteorological office, Zhejiang Province 315012;2.Ningbo Land and Resources Department,Zhejiang Province)
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投稿时间:2006-12-07    修订日期:2007-07-14
中文摘要: 地质灾害的诱发因素包括人为因素和自然因素,但在一定的地质结构及环境条件 下,降雨是地质灾害发生的最主要诱发因素。基于人工神经网络系统(ANN)和地理信息系 统(GIS),结合地面中尺度自动观测系统的雨量实况与高精度的WRF数值预报雨量格点产品 ,依托MICAPS系统,实现预报员的快速主观订正,建立的宁波市突发性地质灾害预报预警系 统在业务运行中是高效可行的。
中文关键词: 地质灾害  气象条件  预报预警
Abstract:The geological hazards can be induced by both man made and natural fa c tors. Precipitation may be the most important factor under a certain geological structure and environmental conditions. The early warning and prediction system of abrupt geological hazard in Ningbo would be very efficient and feasible in th e operation, which is based on artificial neural net work (ANN) and geographica l information system (GIS), combined with rainfall factor from surface mesoscale observation system and high precision grid rainfall amount forecasted by WRF mo d el and relied on MICAPS to achieve quick subjective correction by forecasters.
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朱龙彪,何彩芬,陈有利,崔飞君,朱晓曦,2007.宁波市突发性地质灾害气象预报预警方法[J].气象,33(11):112-117.
Zhu Longbiao,He Caifen,Chen Youli,Cui Feijun,Zhu Xiaoxi,2007.Early Warning and Prediction of Abrupt Geological Hazards Based on Weather Forecast in Ningbo[J].Meteor Mon,33(11):112-117.